Already, within the week of the election results it became apparent that the Congress' DNA has not changed from its traditional approach to politics as but a game of thrones, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Key Points
- The sordid power play today is completely silent on what distinguishes the three front runners in the race for leadership ideologically or in terms of their political programme.
- The high command is having a hard time to rationalise its final choice. Should Kerala have a chief minister who enjoys majority support of the elected MLAs? Or, should it choose a genuinely popular, charismatic figure with an unblemished track record? Or, should it choose someone well-versed in the ABC of governance?
- If the Congress high command is capable of out-of-the box thinking, this is an opportune moment to choose a chief minister who is a rank outsider with no involvement in factionalism, and with deep experience in governance and, importantly, someone with a vision.
There is an inimitable French expression -- 'ennui'. I first came across it while reading Jean-Paul Sartre as a university student in Thiruvananthapuram in the mid-sixties.
It roughly translates as a feeling of listlessness, profound boredom, and dissatisfaction caused by a lack of excitement, interest, or activity.
In existentialist thought, the word connotes a combination of weariness and mental tiredness often accompanied by a sense of emptiness.
To my mind, if a single factor can be attributed to the strange state assembly election results in Kerala, it must be 'ennui' among the Left Front's cadres and fellow travellers.
That such an incipient feeling was there below the surface was obvious to me during an extended visit to Kerala. But that it was going to erupt in such a torrential flow of alienation came as a surprise. This needs some explaining.
The Impact of 'Ennui' on Voters
It was for the first time, perhaps, in Kerala politics that five years passed -- actually, 10 years, if Pinarayi Vijayan's two consecutive terms as chief minister are tallied -- without any major scams.
That is, if one were to draw comparison with the previous Congress rule during which one single scam alone played out for well over a year when powerful figures in the then Congress-led government literally took turns to allegedly seek gratification from an attractive influencer woman with business interests.
Suffice it to say, in comparison, the Left government performed rather sedately in a composed, unhurried way that it engendered 'ennui'.
The Malayali's two abiding passions in life are politics and football, and that is because they are two sides of the same coin -- the entertainment they provide and the adrenaline flow that ensues.
Even governments which largely performed without blemishes were vulnerable to the sense of 'ennui'. (The government that Pinarayi led five years ago during the period 2016-2021 was a solitary exception.)
In the normal course, voters sought change with clockwork precision every 5 years in Kerala.
Disaffection Within the Left Front
Suffice it to say, there was a general appreciation, cutting across party politics, that Pinarayi's second government had acquitted itself rather well. But when one begins to dig deeper, the very same people also stated their longing for 'change'.
Therefore, when the Left government's precipitous fall comes under scrutiny in the coming days and weeks, especially in the CPI-M central committee, it is important that this cardinal truth should be borne in mind.
One major factor could be deficiencies in the working of the ruling party, which came to light when rampant disaffection/dissent surfaced in the run-up to the election, which eventually manifested as alienation accounting for the rout of the Left candidates all across the state including even in the Left strongholds.
Why it spawned on such a massive scale all across the state and escaped notice bears scrutiny. The amazing part is that the CPI-M leadership ignored it.
Out of hubris? The point is, democratic centralism actually worked rather well in Kerala, and its breakdown was not inevitable.
Congress's Opportunity and Challenges
Clearly, the Congress party, which campaigned in the election without any electrifying agenda, has been the beneficiary by default.
Already, within the week of the election results it became apparent that the Congress' DNA has not changed from its traditional approach to politics as but a game of thrones.
The sordid power play today is completely silent on what distinguishes the three front runners in the race for leadership ideologically or in terms of their political programme.
The high command is having a hard time to rationalise its final choice. Should Kerala have a chief minister who enjoys majority support of the elected MLAs? Or, should it choose a genuinely popular, charismatic figure with an unblemished track record? Or, should it choose someone well-versed in the ABC of governance?
If the Congress high command is capable of out-of-the box thinking, this is an opportune moment to choose a chief minister who is a rank outsider with no involvement in factionalism, and with deep experience in governance and, importantly, someone with a vision.
This is an opportunity to bring in a leader who is capable of new thinking to carry forward the transformation of the state's economy from where Pinarayi left it, steer the state to a higher trajectory of growth and inspire the people to rally to the occasion.
Future Political Landscape in Kerala
Unless there is a clean break from the past, there is a likelihood that the mandate may be frittered away very soon.
Trust the central government and the BJP to make things difficult for the new Congress-led government in Kerala from day 1.
That the new government is heavily dependent on the consolidation of Muslim votes will be an eyesore for Delhi, apart from the fealty openly displayed in such ample measure to the 'Gandhi family'.
Organiser, the RSS weekly, has already rung the alarm bell that 'The Muslim League has intensified its efforts to consolidate influence within the prospective UDF government even before the Congress finalises its decision on the chief ministerial post.' League leaders are reported to have issued clear directions regarding who should lead the government.
On the other hand, a chief minister as astute and masterly as Pinarayi only can navigate the equations with the Modi government at the Centre, and keep the equilibrium on an even keel in such troubled times ahead.
Does the Congress have such a master tactician like Pinarayi to steer the ship? Put differently, will the Congress high command' allow its chief minister such latitude as Pinarayi enjoyed by virtue of being a towering political figure in the Left movement?
That the BJP could not improve its vote share despite all the media hype is beside the point. The fact of the matter is that no Indian state is an island.
The co-relation of forces in Kerala can potentially change in sync with the massive transformation taking place in the rest of the country. And that poses challenges to both the Left Front and the Congress, once the Hindu vote gets fragmented and an erosion begins.
The bottom line is that the binary system of notation, which gave an appreciable degree of stability and predictability to state politics, is probably entering a transitional phase.
It explains Rahul Gandhi's impatience with the unseemly struggle for power within the state unit of his party oblivious of the reality that the general elections are due in less than three years from now.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, a 29-year veteran of the Indian Foreign Service, is an astute observer of Kerala's politics.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
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