Unlike films that end with the underdog becoming winner and being sworn in at a public ceremony, Vijay's trial by fire is only about to begin, predicts Saisuresh Sivaswamy.
Key Points
- Unlike the BJP, he did not project himself as different from the Dravidian movement nor did he waste his time trying to defend his Christian origin which was questioned by the right-wing.
- As president of a fledgling party Vijay accepted that he was the lone vote-catcher and criss-crossed the state addressing as many rallies as he could. Many of the crowds were there to see Vijay the star, he knew, and gambled that some of them will at least go back with Vijay the politician's message.
- And his message was simple: The Dravidian parties were corrupt and needed to go, and he represented a new, honest beginning.
A quick question: In this 'New India' that is spoken so much about, which was the last mainstream Indian state to elect a minority as chief minister?
If I said Jagan Mohan Reddy in 2019 you will say no, he is a Hindu, while the lesser known fact is that he is a Christian.
If you said Bhagwant Mann in Punjab in 2022 I will say no, he is a Sikh, part of the Indic tradition.
The north east is naturally out of the reckoning by virtue of its demographic.
Which brings us to, who, A R Antulay in Maharashtra nearly 45 years ago?
Has it really been so long since a Christian or Muslim was elected as chief minister?
In which case, Chandrasekhar Joseph Vijay is set to break the record, as his fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam emerges as the single largest party in Tamil Nadu, within touching distance of the simple majority number of 118 seats, and not the absolute majority his spokesperson was quick to claim earlier in the day.
Here's another quick quiz question: Who was the last actor who launched a political party and in his maiden electoral outing trounced a well-entrenched ruling party that was considered invincible?
MGR in Tamil Nadu, did you say? Wrong.
It was superstar Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao, who launched the Telugu Desam Party in 1982 with the battle cry of 'Telugu Aatma Gauravam' after the Congress' then chief minister T Anjaiah was ticked off by then party general secretary Rajiv Gandhi in full glare of the media at Hyderabad's Begumpet airport. Dismissed as a celluloid wonder much like Vijay was in Tamil Nadu, a few months later NTR swept the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections.
But NTR was not the first to do. Before him, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam had been bested by another actor.
Matinee idol and the party's voter-catcher M G Ramachandran 'MGR' had had enough of playing second fiddle to M Karunanidhi and in 1972 launched the breakaway ADMK and swept the state five years later. On his exit, his protegee J Jayalalithaa continued MGR's legacy, and kept the DMK out of power for much of the time.
Given this history, did M K Stalin underestimate the threat from the matinee idol Vijay, dismissing him as a mere actor?
Question number two, what did Vijay do right in the little time since his political debut to dethrone the seemingly-irreplaceable Dravidian majors, and what did the BJP, which has been going hammer and tongs at the state for years now, do wrong, garnering just about 3% of the votes cast in the elections?
Stalin and his DMK did not underestimate Vijay, they underestimated the Tamil Nadu electorate.
Given the party's own history of being trounced only by actors turned leaders, and given that Tamil Nadu was, is and will be a film-crazy state, they failed to see that voters can be swayed by a popular actor.
Maybe because the previous actors who entered politics, like Vijayakanth and Sarath Kumar, failed to make much headway.
This may have given an impression that the state's infatuation with actors-turned-politicians had ended.
Vijay's Clear Path To Power
The only man who could have tested this notion, superstar Rajinikanth, developed cold feet for whatever reason.
His peer, Kamal Haasan, chose to test his strength in parliamentary elections where he put up a decent show, before joining hands with the DMK, seeing it as the lesser of the two evils.
Unlike him, Vijay eschewed a premature test of strength in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, preferring to wait till the 2026 assembly elections and go the whole hog.
The intellectual Kamal Haasan may have had lofty notions of entering Parliament, which dream was fulfilled by the DMK's Stalin, but Vijay's aim was always Fort St George.
So what he did do differently to achieve this, which the Dravidian majors failed to take note of?
One, unlike the BJP, he did not project himself as different from the Dravidian movement nor did he waste his time trying to defend his Christian origin which was questioned by the right-wing.
In a state where religion matters less than language and culture, Vijay played it well. By co-opting Dravidian icons as C N Annadurai and MGR, he showed that he was within the identity matrix that matters in the state's politics.
Two, Vijay rode on his star image. As president of a fledgling party Vijay accepted that he was the lone vote-catcher and criss-crossed the state addressing as many rallies as he could. Many of the crowds were there to see Vijay the star, he knew, and gambled that some of them will at least go back with Vijay the politician's message. And his message was simple: The Dravidian parties were corrupt and needed to go, and he represented a new, honest beginning.
Money Power And Swing Votes
In a state where money plays a crucial role in elections -- with every party doling it out on election eve -- and where corruption is endemic, this was an important message.
Historically some 25%-30% of Tamil Nadu's electorate are not committed to voting for either of the two Dravidian parties, and their last minute decision often swings the vote one way or another, since the two have an almost equal share vote share. And it was this uncommitted bloc that Vijay was eyeing, along with women many of who were his fans.
Looked at through the conventional prism, Vijay, it was accepted by pundits, would corner some 10% of the votes, and perhaps cause some erosion in the numbers of the two main parties. Most of the exit polls also reflected this, lending credence to the belief that exit polls often reflect punditry rather than true public perception.
Vijay may have cornered this 10%, but his star value brought in the youth, who were drawn in by his anti-corruption tirade, and the women in droves.
If you look at Tamil Nadu, Vijay really was fighting with his back to the wall.
There was a sly campaign over his faith, the pundits did not believe he was capable of winning elections, the Karur stampede wrote him off, and his latest film Jana Nayagan was deliberately delayed clearance before the elections so as not to influence voters.
Yet, he managed to overcome these hurdles, get his message across, and actually relegated the ruling party to the second slot. A truly 'whistle podu' moment, one his favourite screenplay writer could not have put it better.
But, unlike films that end with the underdog becoming winner and being sworn in at a public ceremony, Vijay's trial by fire is only about to begin.
Star power can get you inside Fort St George, but you need more than that to stay there.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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