Whenever tenures of army chiefs were extended in the recent past, prime ministers were subsequently eased out of office by the same army chief, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W.
Even as Pakistan's National Assembly and Senate passed surprise amendment bills providing for five year tenures to defence services chiefs in Pakistan, removing also the 64 year age limit proviso in Section 8 © of the Army Act, 1952 {and concomitant provisos in the Pakistan Air Force Act, 1953 and the Pakistan Navy Amendment Ordinance, 1961), expected promotions of four major generals, belonging to the 84th Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Kakul long course, to the vacant three star posts of lieutenant general have been announced.
Major General Azhar Waqas, 12 Punjab Regiment, who was serving as director general, Pakistan Rangers, Sindh is appointed the new adjutant general.
Major General Mohd Aamer Najam, 19 Sindh Regiment, who was serving as chief instructor at the National Defence University will take over as NDU president as soon as Lieutenant General Asif Ghafoor demits office on retirement over the next few days.
Major General Mohammed Hassan Khattak, 16 Frontier Force Regiment, who was serving as deputy DG (K) at the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) is expectedly elevated to three star rank and appointed the new quartermaster general.
The ISI's K unit is known to be dealing with operations pertaining to Kashmir and officers tenanting this slot are usually highly rated.
Another hot shot officer, Major General Tabassum Habib, Artillery, who was director general, Perspective Planning Cell at General Headquarters and also handling work related to the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), reporting directly to the army chief, picks up three star rank and is posted as director general, Joint Staff, at Joint Staff Headquarters, Chaklala. He will most likely continue work relating to his SIFC charge.
Having commanded the required artillery and infantry brigades and an infantry division, Major General Habib worked earlier in the Military Intelligence Directorate and on an United Nations Peacekeeping assignment.
He is an alumnus of the Kennedy School of Governance at Harvard to which handpicked bright sparks from the Pakistan army have been sent in the past.
These promotions again reflect the Asim Munir penchant of going by the book, not delving too deep in the seniority pecking order of two star generals, following accepted yardsticks of merit and competence associated with important assignments at that level.
General Asim Munir is now ensconced as army chief till November 2027 at least. After President Zardari concurs and the amendment bills become acts of parliament, the tenures of all three services chiefs (army, air force and navy) would be five years, instead of three.
The retirement age bar of 64 years (for generals, air chief marshals and admirals) won't apply to these three functionaries.
Extensions, re-appointments for these posts (if any) would also be for five years.
Pakistan's air chief, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar assumed office in March 2021. He is already on an extension. Navy Chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf was appointed in October 2023.
Significantly however, the tenure of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCSC) remains unchanged, at three years.
Though there is no evidence of any tension in relations between the army chief and the current CJCSC, this indicates that General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, 8 Sind Regiment, 76 PMA Long Course, who was promoted to four star rank in November 2022 along with Asim Munir, will fade out after a three year tenure in November 2025.
This would enable leeway to General Asim Munir to promote one of his loyal lieutenants then to four star rank, even as he continues to wield the reins of effective power within and without the army domain.
While the smooth, even hasty, passing of these bills in the National Assembly and Senate suggests that the Pakistan Muslim League civilian government led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, supported from outside by the People's Party of Pakistan (PPP), remains on the same page with the army leadership, a fact demonstrated also during the passage of the 26th amendment to the constitution curbing powers of the higher judiciary, Shahbaz Sharif may perhaps need to ponder a moment on lessons of Pakistan's history.
Whenever tenures of army chiefs were extended in the recent past, prime ministers were subsequently eased out of office by the same army chief.
PPP circles in Islamabad may or may not have been taken into confidence over tabling of these bills, but some among them are drawing vicarious pleasure from the thought that the decks may have been cleared for elevation of their scion Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for the prime minister's post in the next hybrid dispensation, if and when this eventuality happens.
This seems unlikely at present, as long as a docile Shahbaz does not acquire ambitions like those of his elder brother, three times PM Nawaz Sharif, of exercising real power.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com
