China does not have to give up what it took in 2020, it will never give up its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh and other areas, and it has all the time now to plan its next surprise, points out Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
The 50-minute meeting between Prime Minister Narendra D Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping (the first bilateral after 2019) was interesting, signaling certainties as well as uncertainties.
One thing is certain: Modi will travel to China next year to attend the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) meeting that will be chaired by Xi.
The uncertainties are that China has never ever adhered to any of the border agreements.
This has also been pointed out by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in recent months.
On October 21, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached an 'agreement' to resume patrolling in eastern Ladakh.
Then Jaishankar pulled a rabbit out of his hat, saying that the 'disengagement process has been completed for the four year-long military stand-off.
He did not mention how and where this agreement was reached -- possibly telephoning his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi?
China's response next day (October 22) to Jaishankar's announcement said that the two sides have reached 'resolutions' on relevant matters, which China speaks highly of, and that China will work with India to implement these resolutions.
The pathetic state of India's diplomacy can be gauged from the fact that it has taken five years for China to allow Indian patrols to patrol in Indian Territory.
Here again, up to which LAC (the Line of Actual Control, the border which separates India and China) will the patrols be allowed to patrol -- pre-April 2020 LAC or the one redrawn by China?
To Jaishankar's spin-doctoring of disengagement completed, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi, the chief of army staff, has said, 'We want to go back to the status quo of April 2020. Thereafter we will be looking at disengagement, de-escalation and normal management of LAC...As of now, we are trying to restore the trust...'
Jaishankar obviously wanted to push the Modi-Xi bilateral on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, which he succeeded by signalling China can keep the territory it captured in 2020 in Ladakh (external link).
It is interesting to listen to what is perceived as the fraud being played by our government, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's line 'not even an inch of territory lost' (external link).
At the bilateral meeting with Xi, Modi said in his opening remarks, 'We believe that the importance of India-China relations is not just for our people. Our relations are also important for global peace, stability and progress.'
He further said he was looking forward to constructive talks with an open mind and mentioned the three mutuals: Mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity, which India says should form the basis of bilateral ties.
Xi responded by saying, 'It is important for both sides to have more communications, cooperation, properly handle differences and contribute to promoting multipolarity.'
Modi-Xi put the seal on the LAC pact, pledge to rebuild ties.
He also urged both countries to 'correctly grasp the historical trends' in their relationship. No joint statement was issued.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Modi also assured Xi of India's full support to China's SCO presidency in 2025.
China, however, did not use the word 'agreement' in its readout with the spokesperson only saying that the leaders commended the 'important progress' that had been reached through intensive communication on relevant issues in the border areas.
Modi and Xi agreed to have their Special Representatives, National Security Adviser Ajit K Doval and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, resume negotiations on the boundary issue at an early date.
The two special representatives last met on July 5, 2020; scores of earlier discussions between the then special representatives remained inconclusive.
Notably, the first round of talks between the then special representatives was held on October 26, 2003 -- 21 years ago.
The Modi-Xi bilateral signals the resurrection of Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai, but it remains to be seen what exactly is the 'agreement' mentioned by Misri, which China refers to as 'resolutions'?
How will this be implemented with the multiple buffer zones within our territory and the most prominent Chinese lodgement at the Y-Junction 20-km deep inside Depsang.
Up to what point will our patrols be allowed and will the Ladakhis get back access to their traditional grazing grounds?
Getting back to the pre-April 2020 deployments is out of the question, not only because of the PLA's almost permanent build up but also because of China holding all the aces.
The only leverage India had was occupation of the Kailash range, which overlooked Chinese defences.
But this was meekly vacated perhaps because of the threat (conveyed through diplomatic channels?) that the PLA will resume operations elsewhere (even along the north bank of the Pangong Tso?) if India did not vacate the range.
A post on X calls Modi a chameleon (external link), who kept Indians filled with hatred against China and its products, and then befriends Xi.
The counter to this is that it is all part of geopolitics -- look at the US which befriends a country while quietly backstabbing it and then drops it like a hot potato.
But the difference here is that we are doing this in reverse, also giving up territory; a pusillanimous stand against a bully.
We sure are keeping the US in good humour, including buying billions worth of American arms. But how would America view this development?
Eric Garcetti, the US envoy to India, says cooperation in the Pannun case is not enough till the culprits are punished.
A US court even wants Ajit Doval to appear in court!
The US has been funding the Taliban and post the CIA-engineered coup in Bangladesh, their army chief has been invited by the Pentagon, from where he is likely to visit Canada that has become the epicentre of anti-India activities.
There is speculation that the urgency for this agreement and the bilateral meeting was demanded by Indian corporates for investments and technical help.
Whatever be the case, China would be the happiest.
It does not have to give up what it took in 2020, it will never give up its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh and other areas, and it has all the time now to plan its next surprise.
Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC is a former Special Forces officer.
He is a third generation army officer and participated in the 1971 India-Pakistan War and in Operation Bluestar.
He commanded a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka, a Brigade on the Siachen Glacier, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in the South Western Theatre.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
