24 hours was all it took for the Congress to overturn its boycott of TV debates on the exit poll results.
Sudhir Bisht offers an explanation.
On Friday, May 31, 2024, Congress Spokesperson Pawan Khera announced that the Opposition coalition would not participate in the TV debates centred on the exit poll results.
'What's the point of speculation? Why should we indulge in meaningless speculation, slugfest?' Khera asked.
'Just to increase the TRPs of channels or there are some forces which are involved in betting! Why should we a part of that? Everybody knows who he or she has voted for. Parties will get to know how many votes they will get to know on the 4th. Why should we speculate?'
However, at around 4:44 pm on June 1, Khera did a U-turn and announced, 'INDIA parties met and decided to expose the BJP and its ecosystem on the prefixed exit polls.'
'After considering factors for and against participating in the exit polls, it has been decided by consensus that all the INDIA parties will participate in the exit poll debates on television this evening.'
So, what was the reason behind the announcement to boycott the exit polls and the subsequent U-turn 24 hours later?
First, the reasons for the INDIA bloc's original decision to boycott the TV debates.
It is well known that many broadcasters in collaboration with reputed agencies had committed themselves to conducting the exit polls.
It is well known that the exit poll results were updated after every phase of election.
It goes without saying that those conducting these surveys had a broad view of who was winning the elections after each phase.
Although the Election Commission of India had barred the telecast of exit poll results till 6:30 pm on June 1, from the body language of the TV anchors and CEOs of survey agencies, it was evident that Modi-led NDA was coming back to power.
It is extremely difficult for any anchor or surveyor to have full knowledge of the outcome of an event and not be influenced by it in their speech or body language.
The pre-election surveys had also shown that the NDA's coming back to power was inevitable. Former political strategist Prashant Kishore had repeatedly been prophesying that to defeat the BJP, it was crucial for the ICongress to beat the BJP in a one-on-one fight.
PK further said he didn't see that (the Congress defeating the BJP) happening. So Congress leaders were always fearful of losing the election. They were only feigning that they were in with a chance and would defeat the BJP juggernaut.
Another theory is that even though the exit poll results were announced to the world at 6.30 pm on June 1, their broad contours were somehow known to all parties by May 31 and hence the decision by the Congress to announce its decision not to participate in exit poll discussions.
So, why did the INDIA bloc overturn its earlier decision?
The answer lies in the very aggressive stand taken by the BJP leadership on the INDIA bloc's decision to stay away from the exit poll results debate.
The first salvo came from BJP President J P Nadda. At 8.10 pm on May 31, he tore into the Congress for its decision to boycott the exit polls debate. This is what he said in his post on X:
'What is more disconcerting is Congress's antipathy towards the largest democratic process in the world, which saw participation of over 960 million aspirations. While Indians were electing their leader, who would lead them in the new world order, improve their lives, bring opportunities and prosperity, Congress was working assiduously to undermine the very institutional process, on which rests our robust democracy's foundations.
'Instead of focusing on winning the election, Congress repeatedly approached the Supreme Court, making outrageous demands, in order to mutilate our well-established electoral process.
'The Congress has no complaints about either the EVMs or the electoral process, when it wins. Himachal and Telangana are recent examples. But whines endlessly when it expects a rout.'
Minutes after his party president had spoken, Home Minister Amit A Shah drove the nail further in.
'This (boycott of exit poll discussions on TV) is not a new thing. Congress party has been in denial mode for quite some time. They have been claiming, all through their (election) campaign that they are going to get a majority.
'They are however aware that after tomorrow's election (referring to the concluding 7th phase election on 1st June), they would lose badly. They don't have any courage to face the media (during the exit poll discussions). And hence they are denying the (validity) of the exit poll process itself, saying that exit polls have no meaning when the final results itself would be announced on the 4th.
'Exit polls have been in vogue for a long time. However, this time Congress is unable to explain its losses.'
Amit Shah further had a piece of advice for the Congress party:
'I want to tell Congress that an ostrich-like mentality doesn't help anyone, they should face their defeat (impending) with courage, do self-introspection and move forward. BJP too has lost many a election in the past but it never boycotted the media and the exit polls.'
Then there were voices from the INDIA bloc partners who opposed the Congress party's unilateral decision of boycotting the exit poll debates.
A meeting of INDIA bloc partners was held in the evening of June 1 at Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge's residence and around 4.44 pm an announcement was made and the earlier stand of boycotting exit poll debates was reversed.
It is rumoured that that the DMK leadership was of the view that the party under M K Stalin was sweeping Tamil Nadu and hence it would be difficult for the DMK leadership to explain the reason for staying away from discussing the exit poll results.
It is said that some Congress leaders took feedback from their state-level leadership, and the Kerala leadership too was not too favourably disposed towards boycotting the exit poll discussions.
One senior Congress leader also said that since all the partners of the INDIA bloc had done their own calculations, and it had totalled up to 295 seats for the alliance, what was the need for boycotting the debate, unless the partners were exaggerating the number of seats that they would win!
It is reported that Kalpana Soren, former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren's wife, was against the boycott and she persuaded Priyanka Gandhi, the third most powerful leader of the Congress party, to push for withdrawal of the exit poll boycott.
A friend who has been covering the Congress party for over a decade said he was told by a source that a leader from Kerala said there was no harm in participating in exit poll debates. The leader said that if the alliance was winning, as they all thought they were, why should they shy away from discussing it.
If the alliance eventually lost and the same was reflected in the exit poll results,this leader is believed to have said, the shock of losing on June 4 would be less severe. The public's interest would have waned by the date of actual results. It was a minimax regret strategy that one should adopt in today's times, this leader apparently said.
I can't verify if this is correct or not but I would say that it is indeed a very practical approach for a party that is likely to lose.
Dr Sudhir Bisht, author and columnist, writes from New Delhi.
