What is missing in the BJP's armour is dominance over 50 percent of the electorate: Women. And this is a gamble Modi-Shah have indicated that they are willing to take, explains Saisuresh Sivaswamy.
Key Points
- Why did it take the government till Thursday night to realise that an amendment cannot be made to a law that had not yet come into force -- in this case the 2023 Act that had been passed by Parliament approving the reservations for women -- and scrambled to enforce the old law three years later.
- Why didn't the government simply amend the 2023 law to give effect to 50% increase in all legislatures to accommodate the women's reservation, instead of tying it to delimitation and to the 2011 Census, when the Opposition indicated that the former step had its support?
- Was the political spectacle aimed at the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu elections that are just round the corner?
Multiple questions twirl around the Narendra Modi government's maiden parliamentary defeat in 12 years.
Primary among them being, if journalists knew before Thursday that the government lacked the numbers in Parliament to pass a Constitutional Amendment, it is safe to assume that the Bharatiya Janata Party top brass -- meaning just two individuals, Modi and his Man Friday, Amit Shah -- did so much before anyone else.
Faced with a similar situation over the farmers' laws in 2021, the government rolled back the legislation.
So, despite this foreknowledge of defeat staring them in the face, why did they press forward with the stillborn amendment to the 2023 Act?
And the pressing forward was not just in the legislative domain. Days and weeks before the amendments were moved in Parliament, multiple cheerleaders of the government set off a tweetstorm of commendations over the 33% reservation for women in legislature, signalling a deeper play beyond simply enacting an amendment.
There are other corollaries to the main question too.
Why did it take the government till Thursday night to realise that an amendment cannot be made to a law that had not yet come into force -- in this case the 2023 Act that had been passed by Parliament approving the reservations for women -- and scrambled to enforce the old law three years later?
Why didn't the government simply amend the 2023 law to give effect to 50% increase in all legislatures to accommodate the women's reservation, instead of tying it to delimitation and to the 2011 Census, when the Opposition indicated that the former step had its support?
All of this makes it clear that the government wanted a parliamentary confrontation with the Opposition, televised to the nation, never mind the outcome.
In fact, it was willing to eat crow if the nation got to see who was ranged against thelegislation and who was in support.
Was the political spectacle aimed at the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu elections that are just round the corner?
The former state has been ruled by a woman who looks invincible, while the latter state is known for its genuflection before the venerated Amma (the late chief minister Jayalalithaa) whose legacy remains as strong as ever and where the customary thaikkulam (motherhood) is acknowledged from all political platforms.
Perhaps, but if true these are just minor gains, nothing that Modi-Shah would bet their political legacy on.
There is a deeper game at play, one that is being carried out below the radar even as all the focus is on the surface-level distractions.
I don't mean to endorse Rahul Gandhi's jibe in the Lok Sabha, but this sleight of hand -- meant to distract you -- is what all magicians do.
To understand the game within the game, it is important to sense where exactly the Modi-BJP government stands today.
In 2014 it was voted to power on the Achche Din slogan, with Modi in his post-election outreach promising to build an India (sapna ka Bharat) of one's dreams.
It was a government of slogans like 'Nahi khaunga, nahi khane doonga' -- and abbreviations UDAAN and others -- but did little to power the economy into orbit despite claims of an economy on the trillions track.
Swept under these were multiple bloopers like demonetisation as Modi's charisma carried him and the party through crises.
Till 2019, when the government pivoted from its strong economy plank of five years earlier to Ayodhya-powered Hindutva, which gave it an even bigger share of the Lok Sabha pie.
And when the government abrogated Article 370 to fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union soon after winning a second term, the party had achieved two of its three core demands: The Ram temple in Ayodhya (achieved through the judicial route), Article 370 abrogation (upheld by the courts), leaving only the Uniform Civil Code in play.
Interestingly, two of the BJP's three core demands were met through the judiciary, while on the UCC, which the judiciary time and again has lectured all governments for their failure to enact, the BJP has actually soft-pedalled.
Despite assured judicial backing, why has the central government not gone full throttle on it?
Could it be that its potential to set the hustings on fire is very limited, unlike the Ram temple or Article 370?
Could it be that while the other two demands were clearly projected as pro-Hindu, this one falls in a grey area, with Hindus too having to sacrifice some of their fiscal privileges?
Possibly, considering that various BJP-ruled state governments have enacted their own version of the UCC, where the headline items are religious conversions and love jihad, giving it a distinct spin.
At the BJP's 47th foundation day recently, Prime Minister Modi admitted that UCC and One Nation, One Election were the party's unfinished agenda.
Unfinished agenda maybe, but not election-winning agenda by any yardstick.
So what can the BJP go to the people with in 2029 that won't result in a replay, or worse, of the 2024 outcome when the party could not breach the magic number of 273 while its bete noire, a man who has been constantly reviled and denigrated from all platforms for 15 years, led his party to a turnaround performance?
Sure, that outcome can be a fluke and the Congress could slip back to around 50 seats in 2029, but that's not a gamble Modi-Shah are willing to take.
Since 2014 the duo have been successful in stitching together a winning social coalition, transforming the BJP from a party of forwards castes and baniyas to a rainbow coalition, bringing within it athi picchad jaatis (extremely backward castes) and SC-STs. With Nitish Kumar joining hands, the post-Mandal compact has frayed, but this horse has run its course and cannot be flagged for another race.
What is missing in the BJP's armour is dominance over 50 percent of the electorate. And this is a gamble Modi-Shah have indicated that they are willing to take.
The CDS-Lokniti survey of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results posit that 37 percent of males and 36 percent of females voted for Modi -- not bad numbers, but the party came second to the Congress in its appeal to female voters.
And this is a segment, they feel, can be weaned away.
The first salvo fire was fired in the Lok Sabha on Friday, when Home Minister Shah said in the House during the debate: 'Women of the country are watching who the obstacle is,' following it up with 'The Opposition will have to face the wrath of women, not only in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections but at every level, in every election, and at every place' post the defeat on X.
This was the gamble that Prime Minister Modi was willing to take, even betting his political capital on pulling in more women to the BJP's side. If it works, it cements the party's position beyond 2029, beyond Modi, beyond its core agenda.
Modi has test-fired an electoral missile; will it hit the target or fall in the sea -- the first tentative indication will come from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu on May 4.
After all, haarke bhi jeetnewalo ko hi baazigar kehte hai!
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