'If there is a push towards a Marxist oriented government it will be dangerous.'
'We have seen this in Nepal and Myanmar and it will be a concern for India if it is surrounded by countries with such political dispensations.'
"There is concern about his political inexperience. Sri Lanka's executive president has enormous political, security and criminal powers. Dissanayake's comments on establishing independent institutions are a very good sign because so far, previous presidents failed to do that," observes Asanga Abeyagoonasekera author of Teardrop Diplomacy, China's Sri Lanka Foray, and three other books on Sri Lanka.
Abeyagoonasekera is a senior fellow and executive director of the South Asia Foresight Network at the Millennium Project in Washington DC, and a technical advisor to the International Monetary Fund where he contributed to Sri Lanka's IMF Governance Diagnostic Report 2023.
In the concluding part of a telephone interview with Rediff.com's Archana Masih, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera discusses Sri Lanka's new experiment with a Left-leaning president and some lessons from the past.
- Part 1 of the Interview: 'China Will Be India's Main Concern In Sri Lanka'
Why have the voters of Sri Lanka voted for a Marxist political outlier as their president?
If you look at the voting pattern after the Easter Sunday terror attacks, people have voted for only one factor -- security.
This time, the main theme was economic hardship. People are suffering because of inflation, high prices and taxes. Poverty is a serious issue which we highlighted in the SAFN report (extrenal link).
The JVP's Marxist-Leninist ideology managed to capture the pressing economic issues at the grassroots.
I agree with Dr Paikisothy Sarvanamuttu's assessment that people were angry because of the high prices. The voter was emotionally driven and angry, and wanted to vote out of the establishment and try a new experiment.
The JVP has never been in power and has only three seats in the parliament -- all this is a first in Sri Lankan history.
It will be interesting to see how Anura Kumara Dissanayake brings in the JVP's reformist agenda in keeping with its Marxist background.
What is the most important takeaway of the result?
It is a volatile situation which will reflect on the parliament elections. I doubt they will be able to get a two-thirds majority like Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Since the vote share of Ranil Wickremesinghe's and Sajith Premadasa's together is more than President Dissanayake's, do you think he will have a tough time getting his candidates elected to parliament?
Yes, people have made an interesting comment on social media that you are not appointed on your [JVP] vote, but our vote. It is a cautionary note which suggests that the JVP has to navigate the reformist ideas.
The people who have voted for them understand the dangers, and hence are cautious.
We had projected three scenarios in the SAFN report:
- The government would lose.
- The people were angry against the establishment, and wanted a new one.
- People wanted to sustain the liberal democratic, market oriented-model proposed by Sajith Premadasa.
The results show that the second scenario had greater appeal with the people.
Have people have forgotten the horrors inflicted by the JVP, or are most Sri Lankans too young to remember all that violence?
I think most were born after the JVP insurrections and that's why a large percentage of floating votes went to it. But I'm not sure whether people have forgotten.
Some researchers say that it's in the past, but the foundational structures of such parties are built on those values.
So we have to watch and see how political parties interact with the polity as well as the people.
I don't buy the argument that people have forgotten the 30 year civil war or the JVP insurrections, but they want to see a beginning.
Even when Maithripala Sirisena came to power, people voted for him because they thought it was new beginning and he was a very popular figure in the first few months.
Sri Lankans like new beginnings.
Can the Dissanyake government control inflation and continue the economic stability brought in by Wickeremsinghe is something we'd have to see when Dissanayake has a functioning government after the election.
What will happen if his candidates do not win a sizable number of seats in parliament?
A hung parliament will be a hurdle in implementing policies, passing bills and bringing major reforms.
The pattern in Sri Lanka is that whoever is the president, the people vote for that particular party. But this time the issue is that the Opposition has also got a significant number of votes.
What of the entrenched players in Sri Lankan politics? Will Wickeremsinghe and the Rajapaksa brothers disappear into the sunset?
I'm not sure that they will disappear.
Namal Rajapaksa entered the presidential race though his political advisors would have indicated that he would not win because of the unpopularity of the Rajpaksas.
But do remember that Sri Lanka and South Asia have seen swings where unpopular leaders who made mistakes and blunders have become popular again.
So, Namal would want to be around, but Sajith Premadasa is far ahead in terms of political maturity. It depends on the political events that unfold.
It is quite difficult for the Rajapaksas because of people's anger over corruption.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake has said he would expose the corruption and arrest them. He might want to take up some cases under the framework of the law and disburse them before the general election to show his capability.
There is also concern about his political inexperience. Sri Lanka's executive president has enormous political, security and criminal powers. Dissanayake's comments on establishing independent institutions are a very good sign because so far, previous presidents failed to do that.
There was a heavy politicisation of the bribery commission which we have highlighted in the governance diagnostic report. There's a lot to be taken from that report and the Sri Lankan government has pledged to implement those recommendations.
Let us see.
Has the people's movement that threw out the Rajpaksas dissipated or will we see more political players emerge from that movement in the future?
Anura Kumara Dissanayake managed to capture the leadership gap created by the movement. He is seen as one of the owners of that movement. He was welcomed at the protest site.
I don't see any protest emerging again because people are more concerned about the economy.
Wickremesinghe also got a sizable number of people's votes which shows there was a positivity towards the economic stability created by him.
Do you see Dissanayake governing in the manner of the leftists who have governed, say, Brazil or Bolivia?
The Marxist foundational factor does matter. The party does play a significant role. If there is a push towards a Marxist oriented government it will be dangerous.
We have seen this in Nepal and Myanmar and it will be a concern for India if it is surrounded by countries with such political dispensations.
If Dissanayake works on the Marxist agenda with inward economic policies, then the entire reformist agenda that they were preaching would have been for a political game.
We have seen such cases in other countries and are cautious of this experiment.
What chances do you give Dissanayake's success as president?
He will be a successful president if he implements his reformist agenda and ideas.
Cancelling the Adani project or other major projects does not send a good sign.
The president has to have a more holistic picture.
Sri Lanka has gone through this in the past. Gotabaya Rajapaksa cancelled and banned chemical fertiliser and moved the country to organic only agriculture overnight. [The move in 2021 led to soaring prices and economic catastrophe in Sri Lanka.]
When I interviewed Gotabaya few months ago about this for my book, he blamed external factors and ill advice from advisors.
Dissanayake has to take careful decision taking the macro view otherwise he would have serious issues, just like Gotabaya.
Gotabaya's presidency is also a lesson to many leaders in South Asia, not only in Sri Lanka. 6.9 million people voted for him, much more than Anura Kumara Dissanayake. He had a two thirds majority parliament, but was the shortest serving president.
Dissanayake's reform agenda is promising, he has mentioned public private partnerships which is a good sign. We have to see if he will embrace liberal values and democratic norms that he has said he would.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
