'MVA will not know what hit them.'
'The Ladki Bahin Yojana has brought in a huge wave for Shinde saheb and the Mahayuti alliance.'
The ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra is banking upon a six to 10 per cent shift in voters -- mostly women -- in its favour to return to power with anywhere between 160 and 170 assembly seats, four MLAs belonging to Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena told Rediff.com.
Shinde's Shiv Sena, which has so far announced the list of its 45 candidates include all the 41 MLAs of the undivided Shiv Sena who supported his rebellion and joined hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party to form the Mahayuti alliance in the state by toppling the Uddhav Thackeray government in June 2022.
160-170 seats for Mahayuti
As election fever grips Maharashtra, and as the two major alliances -- the Mahayuti led by the BJP, Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party -- and the Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) -- are almost close to patching up their differences and announcing which party will contest how many seats, Shinde's Shiv Sena is gung ho about the Mahayuti alliance's victory prospects.
"It's a done deal for me and most of us who rebelled under the leadership of Eknath Shinde saheb," a Shiv Sena MLA from northern Maharashtra said last week expressing confidence that his party will nominate all 41 sitting MLAs.
According to him while the Shiv Sena is vying for 100 seats, they are confident of bagging 90-plus seats against the BJP's 150 and under 50 seats that will go to the Ajit Pawar-led NCP.
"The Shiv Sena will not accept any number less than 90. We have asked for 100 seats; let's see how the negotiations go. There is no friction between the BJP and Shiv Sena so far as who will contest how many seats in the state," says another Shiv Sena MLA from Maharashtra's Konkan region.
According to him the BJP will romp home with 100 plus seats performing a repeat of the 2019 elections, when it won 105, the Shiv Sena will bag around 50 and the NCP will add 20-odd MLAs to take the Mahayuti kitty above the half-way mark of 144 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.
The Diwali Masterstroke
The confidence of all the four Shiv Sena MLAs stems from the positive response received by Eknath Shinde's Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana announced by the Mahayuti government in July 2024.
This scheme, launched with much fanfare by the Maharashtra government, has provided an annual financial outlay of Rs 46,000 crore (Rs 460 billion) to women aged between 21 and 60 years.
Eligible beneficiaries -- married, widowed, and abandoned women who meet specific financial criteria, including an annual family income limit of Rs 2.5 lakh -- get Rs 1,500 per month directly in their Aadhaar card-linked bank accounts.
While 13.5 million women have registered themselves for the scheme, the first installment of Rs 1,500 was disbursed in August 2024 around Raksha Bandhan among 48 lakh (4.8 million) women in the state, the second installment was disbursed among 37 lakh (3.7 million) women.
Interestingly, the state government clubbed together the third and fourth installment due in October and November as a Diwali bonus gift to eligible women, who will now receive Rs 3,000 on the eve of Diwali and about 20 days before Maharashtra goes to vote on November 20.
"Only those women who have their names listed as beneficiaries in the scheme, who have received the first two installments, and whose Aadhaar card number and bank accounts are linked will be eligible for this Diwali bonus," says a cabinet minister belonging to the Shinde camp.
"This is Shinde saheb's Diwali masterstroke," he declares.
The Ladki Bahin math
The Shinde camp and the Mahayuti alliance is relying on the Ladki Bahin scheme's emotional appeal among women voters as well as some hard number-crunching to emerge victorious riding on a silent wave that this scheme has generated in their favour.
"The Mahayuti will easily sweep the forthcoming assembly election. And I am not saying this because I am part of the alliance," says a tribal MLA from the Shinde Sena.
"Take my words for it. The MVA will not know what hit them. The Ladki Bahin Yojana has brought in a huge wave for Shinde saheb and the Mahayuti alliance. This wave is still silent; under the surface. This wave will be visible only when the results will start pouring in on November 23," says he.
"We will sweep Maharashtra with over 160-170 seats in the assembly elections. This wave will sink the MVA ship soon," he asserts.
According to the MLA from northern Maharashtra, the Mahayuti is banking heavily upon a six to ten per cent vote share shift in its favour owing to implementation of the Ladki Bahin Yojana and other schemes related to appointment of home guards, police Patils and teachers, and waiving off of electricity bill of farmers, the concessionary state transport tickets given to senior citizens and the one rupee crop insurance scheme for farmers.
"The beneficiaries are never bothered about how much debt the state government is amassing to implement these schemes. All these benefits will weigh in on the minds of voters on November 20," he says.
"Even a six per cent shift in vote share will prove to be decisive for the ruling alliance's victory and as per our math we are confident of adding 10 per cent more votes than we polled last time," says he.
"In an assembly constituency generally comprising of 350,000 to 370,000 lakh voters, a shift of 35,000 to 37,000 votes, mostly women, who do not come out to vote on the election day, will play an important role in who gets to rule over Maharashtra till 2029," he adds.
Interestingly, as many as 188 seats in the 2019 assembly election in the state were won by margin of anywhere between 1,000 to 30,000 votes.
"As many as 37 candidates in the 2019 state assembly election had won by a margin of 5,000 votes, out of which the victory margin between the winner and the runner up were just 1,000 votes in five seats. 35 more candidates won with a margin of between 5,000 and 10,000 votes. 38 won with a vote difference of between 10,000 and 15,000 votes; 24 seats were won with a victory margin of 15,000 to 20,000 votes. 54 winning seats had a difference of 20,000 to 30,000 votes," he explains citing hard numbers.
"Our internal survey shows that with just about six to 10 per cent vote swing in our favour, which the Ladki Bahin Yojana will surely bring about, we are easily winning between 160 and 170 seats."
