Convert the Haryana result into a blessing in disguise; make the calamity into an opportunity.
Maharashtra was always the big ticket game in town; MVA must win it.
The Congress should shift headquarters to Mumbai for the entire month.
Show urgency and a hunger to win, asserts Sanjay Jha.
Dear @rahulgandhi @kharge @jairamramesh
Sub: The Importance of winning Maharashtra and Jharkhand
A quick feedback following the disappointing result in Haryana, albeit the formation of the NC-INC government in Jammu and Kashmir is a big victory.
1. Although tactically losing Haryana is a bad blow (mostly self-inflicted like Chhattisgarh, MP and earlier Punjab), you can take comfort from the following:
a. The vote-shares are identical to the BJP.
b. Congress vote share went up by 40% from 2019.
Congress struggled with the last mile finish; a proverbial essay on several occasions. It is like being first in a 100m race, and then stumbling at the 95m mark.
Sometimes losing, like winning, can become a habit. This needs to be reversed asap. You have barely a month to effect a transformation. But it is possible.
2. Maharashtra will be the biggest election of the season which can determine even the fate of the Modi government.
Since PM Modi has gloated over Haryana as if that is an approbation by the public of his government's disastrous performance overall, can you imagine what a victory in the second largest state of India can do for the INDIA alliance? He has raised the stakes enormously by the smug proclamation that Haryana means everything is kosher. The truth is that it is not.
You can actually go to the public and ask for NDA 3.0 to start packing their bags if MVA triumphs.
3. Convert the Haryana result into a blessing in disguise; make the calamity into an opportunity. Don't repeat the mistakes of the recent debacle of sorts.
Maharashtra was always the big ticket game in town; MVA must win it. Like Haryana, the general public perception is that MVA is ahead in the race, but that can lead to both arrogance and complacency, a deadly death-wish.
My suggestion would be to fight in EACH AND EVERY constituency of Maharashtra (numbering 288) as if your life depended on it, irrespective of anticipated advantage. Win both seats and the vote share, that must be the attitude.
4.My strong recommendation is to make Mr Uddhav Thackeray the chief ministerial face of the MVA.
There is no leader within the MVA who matches either his popularity, character, persona or credibility.
During his brief stint as CM, Uddhav's image soared. His handling of the Covid pandemic was exceptional.
If the election becomes between Mr Thackeray versus the Mr Shinde led Mahayuti, I think MVA will sweep beyond 180 seats. It is frankly a no-brainer.
5. Yes, it is true that the Congress has more MPs and a better strike rate in the Lok Sabha elections than the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and UBT Shiv Sena. But as Haryana has shown, the Lok Sabha elections is history and the local elections will face different issues, and a changed public mood.
I think you will face the usual vociferous calls from local leaders sniffing a chance at the top job, but you need to step in, and fix it; the larger picture is what must be communicated to them.
Be prepared for rebels, but that is par for the course in the election process. Minimise them; if they are confident of an MVA win, they will fall in line.
6. By now you should be aware of how the BJP functions. Once they win a state or even at the Centre, they are not worried.
Governance, policies, execution, public welfare, manifesto promises etc is all dumped.
They turbo-charge their principal theme: Hindutva, in the hope that the flock does not desert them ideologically, at least.
The Opposition is lulled into a false trap: With high unemployment, rural distress, public protests, attacks on minorities and the oppressed, death of institutions etc, it is assumed that the BJP will get toasted for their failures.
Both external polling agencies and I am sure your internal analysts get optimistic; both have egg on their face (Haryana is the perfect example) when the results come out.
Even the people of India are stunned; the results bely any rational expectation. Well, there is a reason behind this conundrum.
The BJP's pathological preoccupation was, is and will always remain winning elections and being in power: everything else can wait.
Although the BJP drifts for 4.5 years of a term, when it comes to the last 6 months, it becomes an unrecognisable election machine. This is what they do:
- Gauge popularity through internal surveys where they hire independent agencies to get a neutral opinion.
- Poach on talent from the Opposition using Operation Lotus to disrupt their preparations.
- Liberally increase expenditure (they have the largest fund base).
- Stitch up alliances with anybody and everybody to add incremental votes.
- Start fielding rebels from rivals by giving them attractive inducements.
- Start announcing fancy schemes with big promises.
- Focus on booth management and getting their voters to queue up.
Since this is their standard template, it is time Congress figured out a smart counterstrategy to nullify them.
7. And lastly, the Congress should shift headquarters to Mumbai for the entire month.
Work out of here, spend time with local teams, and do trips to Jharkhand. Show urgency and a hunger to win. People will like that.
The city where the Congress party was born needs the reassurance that you care.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com
