'Party workers sit outside polling booths and they know everything that is happening.'
'Besides, as a voter when you push the EVM button to vote there is a paper slip that comes out showing you who you voted for.'
No one predicted the Maharashtra elections as closely as Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India.
In its exit poll analysis Axis My India stated that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance would win anywhere between 175 and 200 seats in Maharashtra.
It was the highest number of seats given to the Mahayuti by any of the pollsters, many of who did predict a win for the ruling alliance. As it happened the Mahayuti won 230 of Mahasrashtra's 288 assembly seats.
Many believed the Maharashtra assembly results could go either way since the Opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi had won 31 seats and the Mahayuti just 17 in the Lok Sabha elections five months ago.
Based on this the Mahayuti should have won 125 seats and the MVA should have won 153 seats, but what happened was a complete shocker.
"The MVA was busy in who will be the next chief minister within their alliance rather than concentrating on the elections," Pradeep Gupta, chairman and managing director, Axis My India, tells Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com.
What parameters during your survey made you believe the Mahayuti would win so many seats?
The delivery model and pro-incumbency factor worked in favour of the state government.
What kind of delivery model?
There were many government schemes run by the state government which were being delivered to the public at large.
In the overall functioning of the government there was no kind of anger or discontent among voters which could lead to anti-incumbency. This time it was purely delivery, delivery and delivery.
Another factor that worked for them was the defeat of the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, particularly against the backdrop of 'Samvidhan khatre mein hai (the Constitution is in danger)' fake narrative that was set up by the Opposition. So this time the Dalits and Adivasis in bulk shifted back to the Mahayuti alliance from the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra.
Can we then say that 'Samvidhan khatre mein hai' was a one time tukka (fluke) of the Opposition parties which failed this time?
Tukka toh nahi keh sakte hain (you cannot call it fluke) but such narrative has to be supported by some substance in it. Until and unless any issue is supported by substance and tangible thing it will not affect people across the board.
What MVA strategy failed to win over voters?
If you are a challenger to the ruling party then you have to convince the voters of what change you will bring in people's lives when you come to power, in terms of welfare schemes and so on and so forth. It should be seen on the ground too.
For example, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP was the challenger to the Congress; in the opposition they announced the Mahtari Yojna where they got people to fill in forms which made all the difference to the outcome of the elections. The Congress party was in a very strong position on the ground and yet the BJP won the elections.
In terms of vote percentage too you predicted 48 percent votes for the Mahayuti. What was the pulse on the ground?
The MVA was busy in who will be the next chief minister within their alliance rather than concentrating on the elections.
If you compare this Maharashtra election with that of the Bihar elections of 2015 when Opposition parties took on the BJP, they had decided a year back how many seats will be contested by which alliance party. At that time the Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress took on the BJP and won.
So was it bad planning by the MVA?
Yes. You can say there was no planning and the MVA became complacent after the Lok Sabha victory where they scored much better than the NDA.
The BJP's strike rate in particular -- 132 seats out of 149 contested -- is remarkable. What did the BJP do right?
This is something they achieved due to Vidarbha. The NDA won 47 out of 62 there, which is too loud a number and which is more than 76 percent.
The BJP won in spite of issues like farmer distress in Vidarbha. Isn't this surprising?
That has always been the case for more than 20 years. As I told you, the matter which affect or impacts, that touches across sections of society, matters the most to voters.
'Pachas Khoke Ekdum Ok': This Aaditya Thackeray slogan too failed badly. You predicted Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena would get 53 to 58 seats and that too is bang on target. Was corruption not an issue?
People have nothing to do with such issues that do not affect their daily lives. They need some kind of tangible value in their daily lives and that is the reason they elect their leader or their government. They do not elect a government to hear against each other.
Is corruption not an issue now then?
No, it is not an issue unless it affects everybody. Every person does not go to government offices every day. They don't do that.
It was over corruption that the Congress was thrown out of power in 2014. Why does corruption not affect voters now?
It is always governance that brings a party to power. When governance is not up to the mark then you start saying the victory is because of this or that.
People want change because they get fed up of the incumbent government for not delivering. They then switch sides and elect a new government.
It is like you buy a pen and the moment that pen stops writing you throw it in a dustbin. You replace the pen, it is as simple as that.
What about silent Hindu voters? Was there a surge in Maharashtra?
Definitely not. If you see the results of the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019 in Maharashtra you will find the NDA won 232 seats and 225 seats respectively. The same is the case here today.
BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) came together and their victory was decisive. People wanted a decisive mandate for one particular party and they gave the mandate.
But in Jharkhand we didn't see a similar result in favour of the NDA?
They too won on delivery. They had Maya Samman Yojana. They also have free electricity up to certain units. And they had the issue of Adivasi Asmita in Jharkhand. They have 26 percent of Adivasi votes and then you add 15 percent of Muslim votes and your victory is certain. 41 percent bloc is too much in an election.
In the future will it be very difficult for an Opposition party to win because if the government is good on delivery they are going to stay for sure?
That is the reason I gave you the example of Chhattisgarh.
People should see you as someone better than the ruling party. It is only then they will vote for you.
It is like products and services. You always have a choice of three to five and based on their track record, performance and credibility you choose one out of them.
What about the Opposition allegation of EVM hacking?
Nothing like that and forget about such allegations. Individual party workers sit outside polling booths and they know everything that is happening. Besides, as a voter when you push the EVM button to vote there is a paper slip that comes out showing you who you voted for.
Your prediction went wrong in Haryana and in the Lok Sabha elections. But this time you got it perfectly right. How do you feel about it?
We take it as sports. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.
When we lose there are some shortcomings. I learn from mistakes and move on.
There may have been some shortcoming but now we have learnt from our past mistake.
