First, the numbers: Of the 295 members of the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly, the Congress has its highest tally in recent history of 185. It really cannot go beyond this number and it will have to come down in the state election slated for mid-2009.
The Telugu Desam Party, at 46, is minuscule in comparison. The Telangana Rajya Samithi has 26 and this tally is also likely to go down; the Left parties together have 15, against the BJP's 2 -- which explains why the BJP is so anxious to ride on the back of the Praja Rajyam.
To form a government, a party has to get at least 148 MLAs, a figure that the Congress might be hard put to reach given a combination of anti-incumbency and the Chiru factor.
In the present Lok Sabha, out of 42 seats that Andhra Pradesh sends, 30 MPs are from the Congress (one, Chegondi Harirama Jogaiah, resigned from the Congress as well as the House last month and has joined Chiranjeevi). So in the Lok Sabha too, the Congress cannot expect to replicate its performance and Andhra Pradesh could well be one of the states that will decide whether or not the Congress can come to power in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Image: Chiranjeevi waves at the crowd in front of his party office.
Photograph: Snaps India
Also read: Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam starts with a bang
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