Presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama has bounced ahead of his Republican rival John McCain in the race for the White House with a new poll showing that he has established a handsome double digit lead of 15 percentage point over the Arizona Senator.
This is the first Newsweek poll after Hillary Clinton withdrew from the contest and endorsed Obama. It also shows particularly high support for Obama among the young voters.
Analysts said that it is no surprise with President George Bush rock-bottom approval rating dragging McCain down.
In the previous Newsweek poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting Obama hard for the Democratic nomination, the African-American Illinois Senator managed no better than a 46 per cent tie with McCain.
But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats.
By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.
Another significant finding of the new poll is that only 14 per cent of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, George H W Bush.
Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 per cent to 27 per cent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favour him by 66 per cent to 27 per cent.
The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.
Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy -- 55 per cent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they
lean toward the party while just 36 per cent call themselves Republicans or lean that way.
Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasising his maverick image, he is suffering from the Grand Old Party's (GOP) poor reputation among many voters, Newsweek says.
Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 per cent to 38 per cent lead over George H W Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily.
"Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, adding that a substantial number of voters, about 5 per cent, have also moved into the undecided column.
A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the Senator who championed the "surge" first could alter the Republican's fortunes.
For now, however, Obama is running much stronger in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Senator John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House.
Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results.
The Newsweek survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.
