Given that the Bush Administration needs to persist with the war on terror and in the fact that the current Pakistan president is not terribly unpopular, the US may not be interested in rocking the boat in that country, a leading strategic institute has said.
Stratfor or strategic forcasting has pointed out that the much sought after meeting by former prime minister and Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto and President George W Bush did not come through on February 1.
Bhutto was in town for the annual National Prayer Breakfast meeting.
The PPP would have liked to use such a meeting to try to convince Bush to pressure President Pervez Musharraf as regards the next round of parliamentary elections in late 2007 or early 2008, it said.
"The party, most concerned that the elections are carried out fairly, believed it could have gotten support from Bush in this regard. It also could have used the political mileage from a meeting with Bush to enhance its domestic position, and thus to generate momentum against Musharraf's government," Stratfor said.
"Although Washington has concerns about political continuity in a post-Musharraf Pakistan, it needs to push ahead with the war on terrorism -- and is not interested in rocking the boat at this time.
"Besides, while Musharraf's domestic position remains vulnerable, he is not terribly unpopular. Had the PPP-P succeeded in creating significant domestic turmoil for Musharraf, hindering his ability to govern the country, then Washington's position would be much different.
"In that case, though perhaps not Bush, others in his administration would have been seen meeting with Bhutto and other PPP-P (Parliamentary) leaders," Stratfor said.
"The reality is that the PPP-P has been unable to generate a popular movement against Musharraf for a number of reasons: First, Bhutto has been living in exile for the past decade. Second, Musharraf has been able to weaken the party by engineering defections from many of its parliament members.
"Third, the government has created rifts between the PPP-P and its main ally, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and thus prevented the creation of a coherent opposition alliance," it said.
In the domestic factor analysis, Stratfor raised the issue of whether the PPP-P can do anything at all to rid Musharraf from power given its weakened state and absent leader.
Senior party leaders recently told Stratfor, however, that Bhutto would return to Pakistan once the government announces an election schedule.
One top leader, however, acknowledged that the party would find it impossible to launch a popular movement against Musharraf's government before the elections, though he said a movement could emerge from an enraged public should the elections be rigged.
"Domestically, the PPP-P has no good choices. It has been unable to work out a deal with Musharraf that does not include de-legitimizing itself, and it faces significant hurdles to forging a grand alliance with other anti-Musharraf forces. For now, the PPP-P's position allows Musharraf the bandwidth to better manage his hold on power, especially as regards the coming elections," it said.
