The India-led peace mission, monitoring the five-year-old ceasefire between Ethiopia and Eritrea, is in danger of being withdrawn following increased confrontation between the two countries with Eritrea making its functioning almost impossible.
In a report to the Security Council released on Tuesday, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan said the situation had reached a dangerous stalemate and held out the possibility of withdrawing the mission.
With the mission almost immobilised, Annan asked the Council to put a deadline on the two nations to meet its demands, apparently hinting that the mission could be asked to fold up after that or its nature could be changed.
One option he gave was creating a preventive force deployed entirely on the Ethiopian side as Eritrea is placing a restriction on the mission's movement. "But none of the options is perfect," Annan admitted.
The Indian mission to the United Nations in New York did not comment on the options given by Annan but India's Ambassador Nirupam Sen had told a meeting of the Council, convened by New Delhi in October, that the mission would collapse unless it took a decisive decision.
Currently, the mission has the strength of 3,293 troops, including 214 military observers and is headed by Maj Gen Rajender Singh.
India is the main contributor with about 1,500 troops followed by Jordan which had 1,000 military personnel.
The mission was established in 2000 after Algeria and the African Union brokered peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia following a two-year bloody war over a border dispute.
The UN mission is expected to monitor cessation of hostilities and also ensure integrity of the Temporary Security Zone.
The current trouble started when Ethiopia refused to accept the decision of the commission established to demarcate the border between the two and in response the Eritrean government banned all helicopter flights by the United Nations used to monitor TSZ and supply remote posts.
In the report, Annan said the present position of the mission is becoming 'increasingly untenable' as a result of the restrictions imposed by Eritrea. Giving various options, he said the mission could maintain its present configuration 'albeit with a much degraded monitoring capacity' and despite a reduced presence, 'buy time for diplomatic initiatives to unblock the current dangerous stalemate.'
It could also opt for relocation, moving most staff out of the Eritrean capital of Asmara to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Other options listed include transforming the mission to an observer mission or a political liaison mission.
"If the parties do not fully commit and cooperate not only the future of the mission but also the continuation of peace process could be called into question," Annan warned.
The worsening situation is being caused by a 'protracted stalemate' due to Ethiopia's refusal to accept the binding Boundary Commission's decision as required by the accord that ended the fighting, as well as Eritrea's ban on UN mission's flights and its demand to remove staff of certain nationalities.
A lack of dialogue between the two countries and a dangerous forward movement of their troops is also fuelling friction, according to the report. To ease tensions, both parties must comply with a November 23 Council resolution which threatened actions, possibly including sanctions against Eritrea if it does not immediately rescind its flight ban, and against both parties if they do not reverse their military build up, he said.
"Obviously, dialogue between the two parties should resume without any pre-condition and in good faith," Annan said.
If the stalemate continues, he said he would have to make recommendations for Council action by the end of January concerning force redeployment.
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