US President George W Bush has raced much ahead of his Democratic presidential rival John Kerry with a solid 52 to 43 per cent lead, a new poll said in Washington.
Cashing in on the recent slump in Kerry's campaign, Bush emerged from the high-voltage Republican Party convention in New York with a clear-cut lead over Kerry in the November 2 elections, the campaign for which till last week was a neck-and-neck race.
| |||||||||||
For the first time in a Post-ABC news poll this year, a majority of likely voters now say they plan to vote for Bush.
Among those most likely to vote in November, Bush holds a 52 per cent to 43 per cent lead over Kerry, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 2 per cent of the hypothetical vote.
Bush leads Kerry 50 per cent to 44 per cent among all registered voters.
Considering a smaller sample in 19 battleground states, where strategists believe the election will be decided, Bush holds a narrower lead among likely voters -- 50 per cent to 46 per cent.
Among all voters, the two candidates are running even, suggesting that voter turnout again will be the key to victory in November.
The survey highlights the damage to Kerry during August and the Republican convention. Bush got a 4-point 'bounce' up in support among likely voters from his convention, about the same as what Kerry received from his convention in July.
But in other important ways, the poll suggests that Republicans achieved virtually all their objectives last week in New York, particularly their goal of making Kerry less acceptable to voters.
What won't be known for another few weeks is whether Bush's gains are transitory, as Kerry's were. The setback to Kerry has generated concern among Democrats, but then four years ago, Bush trailed Al Gore in tracking polls and came back to win the election.
In the weeks since the Democratic convention, Kerry's favourability rating has plunged, after attacks on his Vietnam service from anti-Kerry Vietnam veterans, self-inflicted wounds over Iraq and a relentless pounding from Republicans.
| |||||||||||
Meanwhile, Bush's favourable rating rose slightly to 51 per cent and his overall approval rating rose another notch to 52 per cent.
An identical percentage said Bush deserves a second term. That rating had fallen below 50 per cent in May and has been inching its way back up over the summer.
History suggests that Bush will be formidable in November if his approval rating remains in the low-50s, vulnerable if he is in the 40s.
