Here's why President George W Bush waited an inordinate amount of time, before finally deciding not to make a victory speech on Wednesday night: the outcome of Ohio hangs in the air.
At the time of writing this, President George Bush has 254 Electoral College votes; John Kerry has 252. If Kerry wins Ohio, he moves to 272 two votes more than he needs to become president. And so the incumbent does not feel confident enough to claim victory as his.
In Ohio, 11,473 precincts out of 11,477 have reported. Bush has 2,791,912 votes to Kerry's 2,653,046 votes a lead of 138,866 votes for the incumbent that, on the face of it, seems decisive. The catch is absentee ballots and provisional ballots, estimated to be anywhere between 75,000-250,000.
Though conservative estimates put the number of absentee and provisional ballots under 100,000 that is, well inside the lead Bush enjoys. Democrats however claim that the figure is closer to 250,000, and that when those ballots are counted, their candidate could well edge the president out of the race.
Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, in whom the authority of overseeing the electoral process in the state and announcing the result vests, has said that as per state law, absentee ballots will not be counted for the next ten days.
The rules in the state stipulate that an absentee ballot posted on election day, and bearing that day's postmark, is valid. Thus, Blackwell argues that time has to be given for those ballots posted today to arrive in the mail; all mailed in ballots have to then be collated, validated, and counted.
Thus, according to existing rules, Ohio can hang in the balance for the next 11 days. Republicans however are challenging this at several levels. Legal challenges have been mounted, seeking to get the courts to force Blackwell to count the votes earlier than the stipulated 11-day deadline.
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The only reason Bush has not made his victory speech today, Card indicated, was because he wanted to give his opponent the courtesy of 'time to reflect on the outcome of this election'.
By projecting the outcome as a fait accompli, Card was playing to a tried and tested GOP playbook. In 2000, when Florida hung in the balance, the Republicans proclaimed victory, and then pointed to every objection, every challenge, as an attempt to subvert the verdict. Here again, Card is obviously playing the same game he has now announced victory, he has said Bush hasn't officially claimed victory only out of courtesy.
The obvious, if unstated, subtext, is that it is now up to his opponent to match that courtesy, and to accept his defeat and acknowledge Bush the winner. Any delay in doing so will, going by precedent, be pointed to as discourtesy on the part of Kerry.
The Kerry camp has not made any statement beyond a brief speech by vice presidential candidate John Edwards, in course of which he said that he and Kerry would live up to their promise that 'Every vote will count, and every vote will be counted'. Though Edwards hinted that the Democrats will make their stand clear one way or other some time on Wednesday, the option of insisting that the outstanding ballots in Ohio be counted, and the final tally be officially declared, before the Kerry-Edwards ticket acknowledges defeat.
Ifs buts maybes and no final resolution in sight for the next 8-10 hours at least.
