As the world focuses on signs of detente between India and Pakistan in their dispute over Kashmir, South Asia's nuclear rivals are engaged in a dangerous game of shadow boxing in Afghanistan.
The rivalry has not gone unnoticed in Washington, and is sure to be on the agenda when United States Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage visits all three countries this week.
India, along with Russia and Iran, supported Afghanistan's Northern Alliance opposition group during its war with the Pakistan-backed Taliban, and has been pushing ties with the new regime in Kabul since it came to power in late 2001.
It is a policy, which has rung alarm bells in Islamabad, and diplomats say is a major factor explaining Pakistan's alleged support for remnants of the hardline Taliban regime.
"The real power in the present Afghan government is with the Northern Alliance, which is pro-India and not pro-Pakistan," Pakistani Islamic leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman told Pakistan daily Dawn last week, in a sign of mounting frustration.
"Our information is that India has not only strengthened its political ties with Afghanistan, but has also extended its defence and military influence up to Pakistan's western border," he said.
Afghanistan and India signed an agreement in February to cut tariffs and speed work on a trade corridor to Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan, circumventing Pakistan.
But it was the establishment of Indian consulates in the Afghan cities of Jalalabad and Kandahar, close to the Pakistani border, which seems to have irked Pakistan.
New Delhi insists its policies are driven by the economic gains offered by access to Central Asia's growing markets. Vikram Parekh of the International Crisis Group said, "It is probably driven more by geo-political considerations than economic ones."
Infiltration
Afghan officials say hundreds of Taliban militants are now slipping across from Pakistan and wreaking havoc in the south and east. Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency stands accused of supporting them, a charge Pakistan denies.
But if Islamabad feels uneasy and even excluded by events in Kabul and has fallen back to its traditional Afghan policy, few diplomats in the region would be surprised.
Pakistan's promotion of the mainly Pashtun Taliban in the 1990s was driven by the notion that control of Afghanistan would somehow give it 'strategic depth' in any conflict with India, as well as calming its own restive Pashtun population.
Under American pressure, President Pervez Musharraf abandoned the Taliban after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. But he can hardly have been happy to see a successor government dominated by ethnic Tajiks from the Northern Alliance and backed by Pakistan's traditional foes.
"Strategically it was the worst outcome Pakistan could have expected, a regime in Kabul patronised by the Russians, the Indians and the Iranians," said Parekh.
World powers and neighbours have battled for influence in Afghanistan ever since the days of the 19th century.
From America to Russia, Uzbekistan to Iran, the usual suspects have stuck their fingers back in the Afghan pie in the last 18 months, supporting whichever faction or warlord promises to protect their interests, diplomats say.
It is a dangerous game, one that could pull Afghanistan apart, as it has so often happened in the past -- particularly if Pakistan and India cannot resolve their differences.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai tried to ease fears on a visit to Islamabad last month, saying Afghanistan did not want to be embroiled in the politics of India and Pakistan and would not allow its territory to be used by one against the other.
Some commentators hope a combination of US pressure and improved India-Pakistan ties will help bring stability.
Armitage, expected in Islamabad on Wednesday, is likely to ask for more Pakistani cooperation in the hunt for Taliban leaders believed to be sheltering on its soil.
But until Afghanistan has a government more representative of its Pashtun majority, few diplomats in Kabul sound optimistic.
"Everyone thinks there is greater interference from Pakistan, and this is not going to end as long as the Tajiks are in control," said another senior diplomat.
