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If Saddam turns Gandhian

On Sunday, October 21, 1967, 20,000 anti-war demonstrators marched to the Pentagon, determined to shut it down as a mark of their dissent with US policies in Vietnam. They tried to enter the military complex using force, and, predictably, were repelled. Decades later, the then secretary of defence, Robert McNamara, would write: '...had the protesters been more disciplined --- Gandhi-like --- they could have achieved their objective of shutting us down. All they had to do was lie on the pavement around the building. We would have found it impossible to remove enough of them fast enough to keep the Pentagon open.'

Thirty-five years after that protest was staged, another US secretary of defence might well wonder if Gandhian tactics, properly applied, might not halt the American military machine in its tracks. I refer, of course, to the impending war against Iraq. The Mahatma and the Iraqi dictator are, it goes without saying, as different as bread and stone, but I can't help wondering what might happen if Saddam Hussein tries his hand at a Gandhian strategy?

Here is a potential scenario: Saddam Hussein waives the resolution from the Iraqi National Assembly, and announces that he will submit to the will of the United Nations. Iraq, he announces to the world, shall permit, even facilitate, uninterrupted inspection by United Nations inspectors. Then, the Iraqi president ensures the said inspectors shall find nothing because he has previously disposed of all weapons of mass destruction. So, what happens then?

I predict there shall be a wave of sympathy for Iraq and its president all across Asia, from the Red Sea to the Yellow, and across a vast swathe of Africa for good measure. There is a latent streak of anti-Americanism in several developing nations, and the Iraqi dictator will be its beneficiary. He will then appear as the innocent victim being pursued by Big Brother America. And the United States, like most democracies, is susceptible to public opinion. This will give Saddam Hussein enough breathing space to fight another day.

There is, however, a flip side to all this. To pull off such a public relations coup, Saddam Hussein needs to destroy all his weapons of mass destruction, whether nuclear, chemical, or biological. Such a disposal must necessarily be both quick and comprehensive. It needs to be done quickly so that all evidence is removed before UN inspectors can set foot in Iraq. And it needs to be complete because even the faintest smidgen of proof would be enough rationale for President Bush to send the troops in.

Let us carry this speculation further. If --- and this is not necessarily a given --- Saddam Hussein can pull it off, he may emerge as a hero to millions around the world, but what will be the repercussions in his own country? Absolute dictators rule as much through fear as by actual deeds. Will there not be massive loss of face for the Iraqi president when his people see him publicly back down when confronted by the United States? Specifically, how will the ultra-nationalist element in his own military forces react? Shall they stand by idly as Iraq's nuclear weapons programme is thrown away for no better reason than to ensure the survival of Saddam Hussein and his family?

Baghdad's control over the northern third of Iraq, the so-called 'no-fly zone', is non-existent. (The Kurds have a virtual republic of their own under the protection of the US Air Force.) Civilian life has disintegrated thanks to the decade-old trade embargo. All this is borne by the military as the price for retaining its weapons programmes.

Saddam Hussein has survived the anger of his neighbours in Iran. He got away with angering his fellow Arabs in Saudi Arabia and in Kuwait. He was able to defy the United Nations for the better part of the past decade, and he has used the bickering among the Western alliance to his own advantage by smuggling oil. But the question remains: can Saddam Hussein also survive the frustration and the sense of humiliation that is bound to prevail among his own people if he surrenders today?

The Mahatma could use Gandhian tactics because he was free from all moral complications. But if Saddam Hussein tries to use the strategy without imbibing the ethics, I think he is riding for a fall. A total renunciation of his own strength may bring relief from the United States, but will it keep his own people at bay?

T V R Shenoy