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The May 31st by-election to the Bhadrak assembly seat will be a major test for Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and his party - the Biju Janata Dal.
The by-election was necessitated by the death of Congress member Biren Palei last year in a road accident.
The Congress, the main opposition party in the state, has fielded Palei's brother Naren while the BJD has fielded former state labour minister Prafulla Samal.
The BJD's ally Bharatiya Janata Party has extended support to Samal.
Even if the CPI-M, CPI and the Orissa Gana Parishad field candidates, the main battle will be between the Congress's Palei and the BJD's Samal, observers said.
Samal represented this seat from 1990 to 2000 as a member of the Janata Dal headed by Naveen Patnaik's father, Biju Patnaik.
Before that, the seat was held by the Congress between 1980 and 1990.
Observers feel the by-election would be crucial for the chief minister because it would be the first one his party will face after two years in power.
Patnaik is up against heavy odds, the anti-incumbency factor being the biggest stumbling block, says Sudarshan Mohapatra, a political observer.
The non-functioning of the government, increasing unemployment, price rise, hike in power tariff and power cuts, distress sale of paddy, starvation deaths, and lack of rehabilitation work in the cyclone devastated areas are some of the issues which the opposition is likely to bring up, a political observer said.
Also, Patnaik came to power with the support of his father's confidants like Bijay Mohapatra, Nalini Mohanty, Ashok Das, Srikanta Jena and Dilip Ray, he said.
However, Patnaik has since then sidelined all of them and only Nalini Mohanty continues to be in the BJD, he pointed out.
Mohapatra went on to form the OGP, Jena joined the Congress, Das is the state president of the Janata Dal (Secular) headed by former prime minister Deve Gowda, while Dilip Ray was expelled from the party.
Recently, Ray managed to get elected to the Rajya Sabha with the support of recalcitrant BJP and BJD legislators greatly embarrassing Naveen Patnaik.
Ray and other dissident leaders in the BJD and the BJP are expected to make every effort to and embarrass and weaken Naveen Patnaik by ensuring Samal's defeat, Sudarshan Mohapatra said.
Another irritating factor for Naveen Patnaik will be the attitude of the BJP, his coalition partner.
With relations between the two souring, it is doubtful if the party will wholeheartedly support Samal, observers said.
The developments in Gujarat are also likely to have an impact as the constituency has about 37,000 Muslims who play a major role in every election.
The BJD risks having to bear the brunt of the people's anger against the BJP, observers said.
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