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Benazir keeps Musharraf guessing

The other day Pakistan Television showed self-exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in its main national news bulletin, a rare occasion for an opposition leader to appear on state-controlled TV.

The clip, however, related to Bhutto's visit to India last year and her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, with a commentary about her adverse remarks about Kashmiri 'freedom struggle' in the 'enemy country.'

This portrayal of Benazir as someone who hobnobs with Pakistan's enemies follows her public announcement that she will return to contest October's election and lead her party's election campaign.

Ousted as prime minister in 1996 on charges of corruption, she has been living with her mother and children in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai for the last three years. In a recent interview with the London Times, apart from other publications, Benazir said the masses in Pakistan are awaiting her return and she would definitely participate in the October elections.

"No date has been fixed for her return but the party's central executive committee would decide about this after the Election Commission announces election schedule," said Raza Rabbani, deputy secretary general of the Pakistan People's Party.

Although Benazir said no law bars her from becoming a Member of Parliament, uncertainty prevails about Benazir's eligibility to hold any position in the party or even to contest the election for Parliament, because under the new law a convict/absconder can neither stand for election nor hold a party position.

In fact, her recent re-election as chairperson of the PPP may lead to the party itself being barred from contesting, since the new laws prohibit a party headed by an ineligible person from registering with the Commission.

Benazir has been convicted in more than one case under section 31a of the National Accountability Bureau Ordinance and has been penalised with three years' rigorous imprisonment for absconding. Article 15 (a) of the Ordinance disqualifies a convict from being elected, chosen or appointed or nominated as a representative of any public office, which also includes membership of parliament.

The military regime has recently promulgated another law, the Political Parties Order 2002, which combined with Accountability Ordinance is likely to hit Benazir who, for being convicted under section 31a of the NABO and also as per the judgments of the accountability courts, may be disqualified from becoming a Member of Parliament.

The PPP leaders, however, interpret the law differently and claim there is no law that bars Benazir from becoming the chairperson of the party if elected in accordance with the provisions of the Political Parties Order (PPO) 2002.

PPP's deputy secretary information Altaf Qureshi argued Benazir has not been convicted for turpitude; hence she is not affected by Article 63 (h) of the Pakistan Constitution. Once she appears before the court her conviction as an absconder will become ineffective and case will be retried. As an undertrial accused, she is eligible to stand in election and hold the party's position, he added.

The PPP's morale was further buoyed by the US Secretary of State Colin Powell's remarks during his recent visit to Pakistan, insisting that all parties should be allowed to take part in the election. The party leaders say the Musharraf government cannot ignore the American pressure and will have to give space to Benazir.

Whether Benazir is allowed or not allowed to stand in the election, the government has repeatedly reiterated that that she would be arrested on her return to Pakistan for being an absconder and a convict.

Benazir may have her worries about her ailing mother and children in case she is imprisoned. But her party is putting up a bold face. "She knows when she lands she will be sent to jail. She is ready, she will contest the elections even behind the jail bars," a central party leader Farhatullah Babar said.

The party leaders believe that Benazir in jail is much better than her being in exile for the party's political future. "If Benazir gets thrown in jail, it would electrify the party workers and would give a huge boost to the party's chances in the election," said Qureshi. While if she stayed away the party activists might not come out to support the party candidates at the hustings.

Some analysts, however, doubt whether Benazir has really made a final decision about returning to Pakistan. "She will decide to come back only if election fever rises after the election schedule is announced," said Mehdi Hasan, a noted political scientist in Lahore.

Hasan believed Benazir did not have the same popular adoration she had in 1986, but her return would galvanise her party workers. In the last 1997 general elections the party badly lost to Nawaz Sharief's Muslim League.

Since then the party seems to have regained the lost ground. The local government election held in 2000-01 showed that the party, despite opposition of the administration, is still the one of the two largest parties in Pakistan.

As Benazir's main political rival, former prime minister Nawaz Sharief and his family is in exile for 10 years under an agreement with the military regime. With his party, the Muslim League, splitting into two, the chances of her party to win a majority in Parliament are high in a free and fair elections, analysts believe.

Keeping this in mind, the military regime has also initiated another law, which prohibits prime ministers and chief ministers from seeking a third term. Both former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharief and Benazir Bhutto, have served two tenures as prime ministers and are thereby disqualified from contesting.

With Benazir's return, what the PPP hopes for is to win maximum number of seats and bargain with the military regime at the time of ratification of military regime's proposed amendments in the constitution and the laws by Parliament, analysts say.

After October's election, Musharraf will have to get indemnity from Parliament for his takeover, which is treason under the constitution, his election as President and ratification of all his acts in the past three years.

At this stage, Musharraf will have to arrive at a deal with the parties in Parliament. This prospect is what made the military regime consider blocking main opponents, including Benazir, who are likely to bargain tough with the military ruler, says Mehdi Hasan.

(The writer is Chief Reporter, Weekly Independent, Lahore)

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