rediff.com: 'Quake's magnitude was so severe it threw seismic instruments out of gear'


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January 26, 2001

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'Quake's magnitude was so severe it threw seismic instruments out of gear'

Seismologists at the National Geophysical Research Institute in Hyderabad got a rude shock on the morning of the Republic Day, when their instruments to monitor and measure earthquakes ran amuck, beyond their limits. Seismologist Dr Harsh Gupta, director of the NGRI, feels the quake's magnitude must be above 7.0 on the Richter scale because "that is the upper limit of our instruments".

Gupta, currently leading an initiative of the Department of Science, is the head of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme. The GSHAP, comprising five hundred people from across the world, will conduct experiments to find out the acceleration of the hazard. "The first exercise of its kind will be in Jabalpur in March 2001." Gupta spoke to Nidhi Taparia in Bombay, soon after the RD Killer Quake ripped life asunder in Gujarat.

What do you think about this earthquake?

It is the worst earthquake to hit India since the one that hit Assam in 1950. The only comparison I can draw to this earthquake is the one that took place in the same region in 1819. It caused a 100 kilometre fault inland in this area, which is visible even today. But this area has always been very seismologically active. Today's earthquake is really not a surprise.

What could be the reason for this earthquake?

The reason for this earthquake is the Narmada Sohn Linearment which has also been the cause for the last 10-12 earthquakes in this region and the earlier earthquake in Jabalpur.

Do you think this earthquake may have been caused by possible underground nuclear experiments in Pakistan?

No. I definitely don't think so. The Narmada Sohn Linerament is the only reason for this earthquake of such a high magnitude.

Has there been any other earthquake which one could compare with this one?

I think this is an earthquake with very high intensity on the Richter scale. But since the epicentre is in Bhuj which is not a very densely populated area, I would think that the loss of lives will not be more than a few hundreds or a thousand at the most.

You cannot compare this with the Latur earthquake. I had been there on the very day that the earthquake happened and the toll of life had risen to 10,000 lives almost immediately. Which is not the case here.

I have no official figures but I would think the toll would not be very high.

What about the likelihood of aftershocks?

I think the worst is over. Yes, we did record in our laboratory a lot of waves, coming from a thousand kilometers away, for a few hours after the main earthquake. But I don't think there will be any more aftershocks. We have not recorded any. I do not think that there will be a series of earthquakes as is being feared.

Which are the major earthquake-prone areas in India?

The entire northern belt in India is earthquake-prone. From Assam right upto Kashmir to the Narmada Sohn Linearment to the Koyna belt which sees a slot of seismic activity.

Is it likely that this earthquake may trigger some more quakes in other areas?

I don't think so but an earthquake in California did trigger off earthquakes 800 kilometres away and this case has been very widely discussed all over the world. But barring stray incidents like this, I don't think that this earthquake will trigger off any more.

What preventive measures do you think the authorities must take in such areas?

Before the Latur earthquake, there was not any planning done. Currently, there are 20 seismic offices across the country to continuously keep a check. Also, a very important preventive measure that the authorities must take, is to undertake micro-zonation in each of these earthquake-prone areas so that one knows exactly how much stress each area is being subjected to. But no, beyond that you cannot really predict earthquakes.

What is your opinion on disaster management in India?

In other countries, they run a programme called Radius. This is actually a series of effective disaster management training programmes: they simulate the aftermath of an earthquake. Aspects like what will happen in a particular area, which road will get blocked and how they would deal with such a situation are looked into. One such programme happened on January 15 in Kathmandu in Nepal. But no such initiative has been taken in India yet.

What are the dos, don'ts and preventive measures that people can observe during an earthquake?

The best that one can do is to get into an open space as quickly as possible. Or, if that is not possible, crouch under big tables: this might help protect themselves from the debris. Another tip: do not get into the lift (elevator); climb down the staircase to the ground if you are in a high-rise. If one is on the bed, one should roll off it or crouch in a foetal position. One should move next to a solid object which is not likely to get crushed in the earthquake and can withstand any fall.

Is it possible to create tremor-proof buildings?

Sure, it has been done in places like Japan and California. There, they have created base-isolated buildings: the foundation is isolated and has steel springs so that none of the tremors pass through to the building. But whether this will happen in India is a little difficult to forecast at this stage.

EXTERNAL LINKS
The RD Killer Quake of Jan 26, 2001: Technical details
All about earthquakes in India and their impact
India Meteorological Department's earthquake reports
Disaster relief set-up in India
Major earthquakes across the world in recent times
Earthquake News: Web site offering comprehensive news, information and features
Earthquake site map

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