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Advantage PMK, as
poll fever catches up

West Bengal Congress party chief Pranab Mukherjee meets AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha as a representative of his party president, Sonia Gandhi, Chief Minister M Karunanidhi of the DMK announces that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is full and complete, and New Justice Party founder A C Shanmugam calls on TMC chief G K Moopanar, to explore possibilities of a Third Front. And overnight, the assembly elections scenario in Tamil Nadu has heated up.

All these developments were exploratory, not committing any party involved, to positions they seem to be holding. Thus, despite Mukherjee's declaration that the Congress would continue the alliance with the AIADMK, Congress sources refer to the emerging situation in his Bengal party, where the Trinamul Congress has got encouraging signs for a Grand Alliance, involving the BJP, as well.

Likewise, Karunanidhi's declaration after Friday's meeting of the DMK executive committee, is addressed more to the PMK partner in the BJP-NDA, than to the friend-turned-foe in the TMC, who the ruling combine is targeting for a prospective ally for the assembly polls. To that extent, the Moopanar-Shanmugam meeting on Saturday, even as Mukherejee was expressing the Congress intent to media persons, was exploratory at best - and a bargaining chip at another.

Of the three major players in state politics, none is even remotely comfortably placed to claim that the alliance is a cakewalk, and elections itself are a walkover. Yet, there is no denying that the ruling DMK may be slightly better placed, if the leadership can convince the PMK ally to continue in the combine, and agree to seat-sharing, which should not pose a problem.

The DMK's real problem comes from the PMK's insistence on eliminating the Tamizha Rajiv Congress ally from the NDA in the state. The DMK - and the BJP partner leading the combine at the national-level -- is not impressed by the PMK's demands or protestations. Both feel that the PMK is using the TRC as a ruse to bargain for more seats, and for the chief ministership of Pondicherry.

It is now an open secret among allies - current and prospective - that PMK founder Dr S Ramadoss is keen on his son, Dr S Anbumani, becoming chief minister in the union territory after the near-simultaneous assembly polls, paving the way for his own future elevation in Tamil Nadu politics.

However, by asserting that the BJP-NDA alliance is complete, and seat-sharing talks alone have to be taken up, Karunanidhi is seen as declining the PMK's demand for throwing out the TRC. Obviously, for any future alteration of the NDA combine in the state, which could lead to the PMK having to lose its two ministers at the Centre, the DMK - and also the BJP - want Ramadoss to take the blame. The same could be the DMK's excuse to try and induct the TMC, which is what is actually holding out against the presence of the 'communal BJP'.

The PMK, more than anyone else holds the key to an electoral alliance in the state. A marginal force like the TMC, the PMK can give value-addition to any combine. While the TMC has positioned itself hard on the 'communal' question, the PMK, by keeping its options open, has made itself a more attractive proposition. Thus, if the PMK responds positively to Jayalalitha's public call for rejoining the AIADMK alliance, it becomes a winner, should the TMC stick out on joining the BJP-NDA.

The TMC becomes a balancing and powerful force only in DMK-BJP company, for any DMK-led combine without the BJP would lose credibility in the voter's eyes, as it would have led to 'complications' at the Centre. Alternatively, the TMC could become valuable only in the AIADMK combine. If the PMK joins the alliance, the TMC's bargaining chip would be that much weakened.

There is no denying that a TMC-led Third Front could weaken the positions of the rival Dravidian majors.

Once again, the PMK's position could then become crucial in deciding the poll results. The Third Front itself could become irrelevant if the TMC continues with its ambivalence on relations with the DMK and AIADMK. If the TMC is really serious about a Third Front, unless the failed 1999 Lok Sabha poll attempt, it should go about the process more systematically, and convincing cadres first, and voters next, on the seriousness of its electoral venture.

The TMC's mood may be influenced by the Congress decision on continuing with the AIADMK alliance, and also the possibility of the Grand Alliance in Bengal, for which chances now seem even, and not necessarily remote. By tagging itself alongside the Congress parent, the TMC is yielding bargaining points to the AIADMK, and influencing the PMK to cross over, as the Left is already committed to the alliance, and the anti-incumbency factor against the DMK government and the BJP-led Centre is palpable. Only that the alliance formulae would be the final influencing factor - though not the deciding factor in a State, where more new-generation voters are non-cadre, non-party voters, influenced by issues on hand, of which there is none.

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