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Piyush Mankad favourite for Cabinet Secretary's post

Amberish K Diwanji in Delhi

Speculation has begun about the most important civil servant's job in the country which falls vacant when incumbent Prabhat Kumar retires in October.

Kumar would have retired a few months after his appointment, but the government raised the retirement age for government officials from 58 to 60, enabling the Uttar Pradesh cadre Indian Administrative Service officer to stay at his perch for over two years.

With his imminent retirement, observers have begun speculating about his successor. The current favourite is Finance Secretary Piyush G Mankad.

According to some former Cabinet secretaries and government officials who spoke to rediff.com, Mankad has every reason to make it to the top given his record in the civil service. An IAS officer of 1964 vintage, he topped his batch that year.

Like all government appointments, the path to glory is not smooth. Ahead of Mankad is Defence Secretary T K R Prasad, an IAS officer of the 1963 batch. But Prasad would hold the CabSec's post for barely a few months after Kumar retires.

"Normally, any Cabinet secretary should hold the post for at least two years. Unfortunately, the norm these days has been a post for generally a year or thereabouts, even less," a former CabSec sad, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Another CabSec seconded him. "In the 1960s, the administrative reforms committee recommended that any Cabinet secretary should hold the post for at least three years, but alas, this suggestion has been observed more in the breach," he said.

The last Cabinet Secretary to hold a post for three years was B G Deshmukh during Rajiv Gandhi's tenure. After him, all other CabSecs have held it for a few months, a year or more, and two years.

"If Mankad succeeds Kumar, he will be at the helm for one-and-a-half years. But if he succeeds Prasad, then he will hold the post for roughly a year. In such a case, the government might make a case for appointing Mankad directly," one of the former CabSecs said.

Two other names are also doing the rounds. Home Secretary Kamal Pande and the influential special secretary in the Prime Minister's Office, Nand Kishore Singh. Pande belongs to the 1965 batch. Despite some reports that Pande might pip Mankad, the former CabSecs this correspondent spoke to doubted it.

"Supersession must occur in very special circumstances, otherwise the bureaucracy becomes very unco-operative. There is no reason for Pande to supersede Mankad. It will be very difficult for the Vajpayee government push the 1964 batch aside," one former CabSec said.

N K Singh is due to retire in January 2001, giving him just three months in office after Prabhat Kumar. However, the former Cabinet secretaries are unwilling to write him off. "It is a very difficult proposition but because it involves Singh, you never know till the last minute," one former IAS officer said.

He put it in percentage terms: "Mankad has a 90 per cent chance of being the next Cabinet secretary, Prasad has a nine per cent chance, and Singh has a one per cent chance. But remember, Singh does have that one per cent chance!"

So how much of politics is involved in the process? Both former Cabinet secretaries said while the final decision is the prime minister's prerogative, they insisted it was not as political as made out in the media.

"Let us remember that no prime minister will make a decision that will be criticised by one and all and not respected by the rest of the bureaucracy. Not only must he be fair, he must also appear to be fair," one of the former CabSecs pointed out.

"Every government will try and appear fair," his peer added, "and no government will make an appointment that cannot be justified. It is here that Mankad has a clear edge."

Yet, decisions in the past have been influenced, if not by political considerations, then at least by the prime minister's preference. For instance, Rajiv Gandhi went out of his way to promote T N Seshan as Cabinet secretary. Then, V P Singh promoted Vinod Pande, again a personal choice, P V Narasimha Rao pushed for Zafar Saifullah. Even Prabhat Kumar's appointment is seen as Vajpayee giving into pressure from then UP chief minister Kalyan Singh.

It was Saifullah's appointment that caused most heartburn among IAS officers. A person appointed as Cabinet secretary would normally have held the post of secretary or at least additional secretary at the Centre. Saifullah had not held any such post, having been till then chief secretary of Karnataka and then secretary of the National Commission of Minorities, New Delhi.

"Since it was in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition I think the government thought appointing a Muslim might appease the community and so he was suddenly picked for the post. Narasimha Rao was under pressure from his ministers then," one of the former CabSecs said.

But Saifullah had topped his batch (1958) and had a good record. "The trouble is there is always a lot of jealousy and people pipped to the post invariably attribute motives. One must remember there is intense competition and everyone is trying their best to become Cabinet secretary," pointed out someone who held the office.

"I do believe that in today's climate," added another former CabSec, "the government will certainly prefer a person with an economic ministry background and Mankad's record is very good. That is why he is most likely to be the next Cabinet secretary."

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