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The Rediff Special/Ranvir Nayar

Franco-Indian ties set for boom time

Even though next month United States President Bill Clinton will become the first American head of government to visit India in over 22 years, the year 2000 will belong to the Indo-French relationship.

The entire year is already almost full of events and bilateral visits. Consider this: India and France have just completed a fresh round of strategic dialogue. Next week, the Indo-French Forum meets in New Delhi. Next week again, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine arrives in New Delhi on a two-day state visit, the first by a French foreign minister since 1994. In April, President K R Narayanan pays a weeklong state visit to France. And later in the year -- perhaps by October -- Prime Minister Lionel Jospin heads for New Delhi for the first visit ever to India by a French premier.

In addition to this VVIP calendar, there will be several official-level and ministerial visits as well, if the year gone by is any indication.

Clearly, Indo-French relations are on the upswing. And this time round, it looks real and for good, at least so far.

In the past, relations between the two countries have been rather like a yoyo. "It has been like one very big bang every 10 or 15 years and almost as suddenly as the friendship peaked, it disappeared with even greater pace. In the interim, it is like the two countries seem to be oblivious of each other's existence," a French journalist said. And that about sums up the bilateral relationship so far.

The last such peak came in 1985 when Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and French President Francois Mitterrand organised the Festival of India in France and the Festival of France in India. But then the relationship just melted away, till President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister A B Vajpayee revived it in 1998.

The current improvement in bilateral ties appears to be different from previous highs as it has been much more slow and steady. The new relationship is wider and deeper. It is developing at all levels -- from heads of state down to the level of bureaucrats -- and cuts through several sectors -- politics, economics, defence, culture, and science and technology.

Surprisingly, it is on science and technology that the two countries seem to have made maximum progress. France and India have agreed to set up joint labs in frontier technology areas and are also co-operating on joint satellite launches. Even in the highly sensitive area of nuclear technology, the two sides have been discussing enhanced co-operation, especially in areas relating to nuclear safety, though the French are known to be keen to export some nuclear power plants as well.

But it is in politics that the most visible improvement in bilateral ties has come about. The numerous bilateral high-level visits and continuous contacts at various levels have helped create an understanding between the two countries. "There has been an increased understanding and deepening trust between the two sides since the dialogue began. The dialogue is based on the common belief of India and France in a multipolar world and hence has led to widening co-operation and deepening understanding between the two countries," is how National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra put it.

It is also here that the French have been amongst India's most outspoken supporters on a range of issues -- from the bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council to the Pakistani intrusions in Kargil, when the French were unusually clear about which side to support.

But that is where the potential trap for India lies. The French record has been anything but reliable, and not just with Asia. Paris's foreign policy is dictated entirely by its own interests -- often economic -- and rarely rests on esoteric matters like principles. France is the world's second largest exporter of arms and its economy relies heavily on defence sales. And that has been an area of concern for India. After the United States, the French have been Pakistan's biggest suppliers of weapons -- knowing fully well that they will be used only against India. In the 1980s, the French supplied Pakistan the nuclear-capable Mirage fighters, lethal sea-launched Exocet missles, and advanced submarines. And the French would love to forget today that they are perhaps as guilty as China of gifting nuclear weapons to Pakistan, which acquired its first nuclear technology, including a reactor, from France nearly two decades ago. In fact, the Kahuta nuclear facility in Pakistan may not have come about without French help.

Even today, though the French are clearly under pressure from India to scale down their military relationship with Pakistan, no clearcut commitment has been forthcoming. So, if India goes ahead and buys French Mirage aircraft, it cannot be certain that tomorrow the French will not sell to Pakistan missiles and radars to bring down the same Mirages.

As the negotiations on the Mirage acquisitions proceed, India needs to clearly tell the French that its defence relations with Paris will be a direct function of its relations with Pakistan. And India is clearly in a position to assert itself. It is one of the largest arms buyers in the world and the French are very keen to get a chunk of this market, which opened up after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"India needs to take a far more aggressive posture in its diplomacy than it has done so far. It has several inherent strengths that most countries cannot ignore. But India always tends to be soft and lacks confidence. The country buckles under pressure too soon, without realising that it can exert as much if not much more pressure on other countries. It needs to learn the art of living on the edge or playing the game of brinkmanship," argued a Western diplomat.

Yet another area of concern for India in its relationship with France is the near total absence of the economic aspect. France lags behind almost all the other European Union members in trade with India and is one of the smallest foreign investors in India.

The French corporate sector is still wary of India. Part of the reason is that French companies -- even the private sector -- are unusually intertwined with their government and do not venture into countries where it does not have considerable influence. Hence, most French investments so far have been made in former French colonies or Francophone countries over whom Paris has a stranglehold.

Here again, India has not played its trump card. It can easily link development in political or defence relations with progress in economic ties and thus force the French government to play its part in marketing India to its corporates. The organisation of the FranceIndia2000 exhibition in New Delhi last December was a step in that direction, but French companies need a definite push that can only come from their government.

For a country that is desperately trying to cosy up to a newfound friend, the French approach on some recent developments has been far from convincing. The Lalita Oraon affair is a case in point. Had the French government desired, it could have managed the affair better and avoided the embarrassment caused to India. But instead of worrying about the impact of the row on its developing relations with India, the French chose to worry about their own non-governmental organisations and other lobbies.

Then consider the arrests of an Indian industrialist in Paris on a purely commercial dispute between Peugeot and Autolite Industries of Jaipur. Hiding behind the excuse of judicial independence, Paris refused to intervene in the matter and let the industrialist be in prison for more than a month without bail in a matter where he was not even directly involved. All that the government needed to do was ask Peugeot to drop the case and the matter would have ended amicably, but it did not intervene.

And as if to reinforce the view that the French do not display enough goodwill towards India, the Indian captain of an oil tanker was arrested and put behind bars for 10 days after an Italian ship carrying French oil broke in two and caused Europe's biggest spill. Once again, there was no case against the captain, and he was not only vindicated but highly praised by the French inquiry committee for his role in trying to prevent the disaster. But not a word of apology, once again.

"In all these cases, the French have pretended to stay away from the so-called judicial process. But had the nationalities of those involved been American or Chinese, the drama would have been far different. And the same French don't think twice before applying pressure on the Indian government to go easy on French nationals duly indicted by Indian courts," remarked an observer.

Despite these setbacks, a genuine and honest Indo-French friendship is desirable and will benefit not just the two countries but also the world. But, as in any other friendship, the two sides need to know exactly what is off limits. And before Indo-French ties advance any further, India needs to clearly lay down the ground rules that the French can play by. Otherwise, Delhi could end up as a mere French pawn in international politics.

ALSO SEE:
Pakistan's ties with France take a nosedive
'I was sent to prison only because France wanted to show they were doing something about the oil spill'
Oraon issue may cast a shadow over Vedrine's visit

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