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Sharief may still go to the gallows, feel experts

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

The life imprisonment to Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharief is an "internal matter" of that country and not something the Indian government would care to comment on, Union external affairs ministry officials have made it clear.

Pakistan watchers, for their part, are cautious in their reaction. "In one sense, it was only the culmination of a trial held and carried to its conclusion," said former foreign secretary J N Dixit.

"But certainly the trial had political overtones, in fact the holding of the trial was nothing more than a political act," he added.

Sreedhar, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, pointed out that even though the sentence had been passed, it would take a year at least before it was actually implemented.

"This sentence has been passed by the special court. Now Nawaz Sharief will appeal and the matter will go up to the Pakistani supreme court. Only the supreme court's decision and sentence is what will finally be implemented," he said.

Sreedhar agreed that by not sentencing Sharief to death, Pakistan chief executive General Pervez Musharraf had heeded the United States' plea on the matter, but warned it was too soon to celebrate.

"I still firmly believe that Sharief will be hanged. Once the trial goes to the superior courts, they too will find him guilty and sentence him to death. And when this happens... by then international pressure is likely to be less effective on the Pakistani regime," said the IDSA senior fellow.

"Moreover, it is clear that the army has been able to subvert the judiciary to its will, and will thus have its way in deciding what final sentence should be given to Sharief," he warned.

The other aspect is that the Pakistani Muslim League, Sharief's political party, will be effectively destroyed as time goes by.

"Sharief destroyed Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan's People's Party, and Musharraf has done the same with the PML. Thus there is no political party to effectively challenge the army rule, which is what Mushurraf wants," Sreedhar held.

Both Dixit and Sreedhar agree that there are parallels between the Sharief case and that of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1978. Both were democratically elected governments overthrown by military regimes. In both cases the prime ministers were tried and found guilty. Only, Bhutto was hanged.

Certainly one similarity that stands out between then and now is that the Indian government refused to intervene in the matter, saying it was Pakistan's concern, even as the international community voiced concern. In the present case, the United Kingdom has already expressed its disapproval, and some reports claim that even China has voiced its concern at the matter.

"Strangely, though one does not have the details, there appears to be more evidence against Sharief than there was against Bhutto, and the trial more justified," said Dixit.

It is these similarities that convince Sreedhar that Sharief would still go to the gallows. "Perhaps a year later," said Sreedhar. He points out that both Bhutto and Sharief tried to stifle democracy, and both in turn became victims of that very act.

Dixit agreed that the Government of India was right in not responding to the sentencing, even if other countries did speak out. "New Delhi should keep quiet," he insisted.

However, he warned that given the fragile situation in Pakistan, India must stay alert about the political fallout in that country, which could spill over.

Sreedhar agrees. "Right now the public has been extremely quiet about the sentence, but it is also clear that Musharraf's popularity is dipping, which could soon lead to public demonstrations. We have to be alert," he explained.

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