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New govt will sign major defence deals

Josy Joseph in New Delhi

Some of the biggest defence deals in Indian history will be signed by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, which will be sworn in on Wednesday, October 13.

Defence ministry officials predict a taxing time for the new defence minister as deals, running into several thousand billion rupees, await the government's approval. "I will not be surprised if the government finds more problems at the defence ministry than previous administrations have encountered. We cannot rule out the possibility of scams, border problems and trouble inducting nuclear weapons in the armed forces," a senior bureaucrat, who has served at the ministry, told rediff.com

By now it has been confirmed that the Indian Air Force will sign the deal for Advanced Jet Trainers, and possibly for a squadron of advanced fighters to induct nuclear weapons into the IAF.

The army will push for the purchase of the much delayed Main Battle Tank, in all probability Russian-made T-90 tanks, besides going in for a massive upgradation of its equipment on all fronts in the wake of the Kargil conflict.

The navy will sign major deals for the first indigenous aircraft carrier to be built at the Cochin Shipyard, besides pushing through the purchase of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and fighter aircraft.

In the navy a sensitive issue is the acceleration of the construction of the much delayed nuclear submarine which has been lagging behind for several years now.

According to defence ministry sources, the army is waiting for the new government to finalise the purchase of T-90 tanks. The proposed deal has already kicked up much controversy with former prime minister H D Deve Gowda and several other politicians alleging foul play. Under the existing proposal, 200 T-90 tanks are to be bought from Russia; the rest are to be manufactured in India indigenously. A T-90 tank is expected to cost about $ 1.75 million apiece.

Besides, the army has drawn up a long list of demands, which includes better communication equipment, costly upgradation of intelligence abilities and better food and clothing in high altitudes. "The hurry for upgradation and purchases that was visible in the wake of Kargil has slowed down. We are back to the old bureaucratic ways. Once the new government is in place, we hope to push through some of the purchases," a senior army officer said.

The army also wants to upgrade its aviation fleet. During the Kargil conflict the army felt the absence of a sophisticated aviation wing. No deals are immediately expected though.

The navy hopes to buy the Admiral Gorshkov, the aircraft carrier that Russia offers for the cost of its refit. Negotiations for the Gorshkov is expected to pick up once the new government is in office. The refit will cost around $ 700 million. The navy will also have to buy new fighter aircraft for the Gorshkov, possibly MiG-29s.

The Air Defence Ship, the indigenous aircraft carrier project, is presently estimated to cost between Rs 18 billion (Rs 18,000 crores) and Rs 20 billion (Rs 20,000 crores). But the cost may ultimately escalate to around Rs 30 billion (Rs 30,000 crores) as about 60 per cent of the project will be of foreign origin. From consultancy to the latest generation weapons, a string of contracts will awarded in the next couple of years. The ADS is being built based on a design by the Direction des Constructions Navales, a French firm.

According to sources, the navy is thinking of placing the naval version of MiG-29K fighter jets on the proposed ADS as the indigenous development of a naval version of the Light Combat Aircraft is nowhere in sight. A major part of the investment for the ADS will be the purchase of about 25 fighters from Russia.

The IAF contracts are expected to be the biggest. After dragging its feet for 14 years, the government is set to sign the Rs 60 billion (Rs 60,000 crores) contract for Advanced Jet Trainers. The deal is expected to be inked in shortly. The government has already earmarked Rs 10 billion (Rs 10,000 crores) for the current financial year. The rest of the amount will be released in five years.

The IAF is also keen to acquire advanced multi-role fighters, and Air Chief Marshall A Y Tipnis has already held some preliminary discussions when he visited France last month. The Mirage 2000-5 multi-role fighters are among those preferred, as they are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Presently, the IAF is involved in the purchase of 10 Mirage 2000s approved by the Cabinet in 1996 to complete the strengths of the two Mirage 2000 squadrons.

The induction of nuclear weapons will be a major concern for the new government. Sources said the Agni II missile, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is not yet ready to be inducted into the army, as some more trial tests are required.

But the most crucial -- the second strike capability -- is far from realisation in the Indian defence forces. The most reliable and acknowledged second strike capability are nuclear submarines, but the Indian project -- the Advanced Technology Vessel -- is far behind schedule. During Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat’s tenure an audit of the project was ordered, but nothing substantial occurred. Sources said, due to American pressure, Russia is reluctant to lease India a nuclear submarine, as it did in the late 1980s.

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