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Jaswant's Japan visit may initiate turnabout

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

In May 1998, when India tested a series of nuclear bombs deep under the Thar Desert at Pokhran, among those who condemned it very strongly was Japan. This economic giant, the only victim of nuclear attack, immediately snapped or suspended all trading and other links with India.

However, even as the suspension of aid and the granting of new loans remains, a big step towards restoring normality in Indo-Japanese relations will take place early next week when External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh pays a three-day visit to Japan. Singh's visit will be the first ministerial visit from either side after the nuclear tests.

Singh, who is flying via Hong Kong, where he spends two days, will reach Tokyo on the night of November 23. In the course of his stay he is scheduled to meet all the top political leaders, including Prime Minister Obuchi, Foreign Minister Yoki Kono, and others. Singh will also address the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Keidantran, also a commercial association, besides the Japan-India Business Cooperation Committee.

Officials from the ministry of external affairs in New Delhi view the visit as another step forward but warn that Japan is in no hurry to lift the economic sanctions that it has slapped against India. Tokyo's present position is that India must show some movement towards non-proliferation by signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty before Tokyo considers lifting the sanctions.

"Despite Singh's visit, this position is not expected to change," the officials said. Even the rejection of the CTBT by the United States Senate has not changed Japan's view on India signing the CTBT before considering the lifting of sanctions.

The visit follows intense negotiations and backroom diplomacy between Indian and Japanese officials, spread over the past year. Incidentally, Defence Minister George Fernandes was scheduled to visit Japan in May 1998 and Foreign Secretary K Raghunath was to follow a month later, both of which were cancelled following the blasts.

However, India took the position that if there are differences in perception, then holding talks was the best way to resolve them, and pressed for a resumption of dialogue. A breakthrough occurred when Raghunath visited Japan in January 1999.

Japan too showed its willingness to return to the table when late last year, Obuchi, who was foreign minister then, invited Singh to visit Japan, and which invitation was reiterated at various meetings later. New Delhi accepted the invitation, which was initially planned for mid-1999. However, political developments and the elections forced a postponement.

Also, Japan relented from its hardline position when it allowed aid for "humanitarian reasons" to go through. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have resumed loans for projects in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, both of which were not opposed by Japan.

Also, the powerful Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, that oversees foreign investment, has upgraded India's position as a potential destination for investment. "In 1994, India ranked 11th as a potential destination, this year it is ranked 3rd, after only the US and China," the Indian officials said.

However, in terms of investment in India, Japan has slipped from the fourth rank to fifth rank. However, Indian officials say the blame does not lie on the slapping of economic sanctions but more on the economic turmoil that Japan went through over the past two years. "Their economic problems, the Asian crisis and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to fund investments were the primary causes of the rank slide. But this year the Japanese economy has begun to look up and we are hopeful that Japanese investment will soon pick up," the Indian officials said.

The Japanese also claim, the officials added, that unlike other countries which plan projects but slow down on implementation, they follow up all plans with immediate projects. "For instance, Toyota entered India recently and their first cars are expected to roll out early next year," the officials said.

In Japan Jaswant Singh is expected to discuss topics relating to security, the CTBT, and trade and investment.

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