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Was it a vote against Vajpayee?

Soroor Ahmed in Patna

To put it very, very mildly: it was a rude shock.

Never, not even in its wildest dreams, did the Bharatiya Janata Party expect to lose all three of its sitting seats in Bihar. Not when everything seemed in its favour.

In the four constituencies that went to poll on October 28, neither the image of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee nor the Kargil factor, nor the consolidation of the BJP-Samata-Janata Dal-Bihar Peoples Party votes worked.

It was a fight, straight and simple, against the sitting MPs. And the people, with no room for doubt, showed what exactly they thought of their representatives.

The truth is that had it not been for the BJP tag, most of the 23 MPs who are in Parliament today would have lost. Performance-wise this is certainly the worst lot. MPs like Lal Muni Chaubey from Buxar, if you recall, was offered shoe-garlands by none other than BJP supporters during the campaign.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal leaders, for their part, label the defeat not as a vote against the MPs but against the Union government. "The voters gave a verdict against the policy initiated by the Vajpayee government such as unprecedented hike in the price of diesel, abject surrender before the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organisation etc. It is also a vote against the anti-poor government of Mr Vajpayee, which is now planning to abolish the welfare schemes like public distribution system" is how national general secretary Shivanand Tiwary puts it.

His colleague Kanchan Bala said the downtrodden have understood that the government in Delhi is "against the forces of social justice." She quoted Civil Aviation Minister Sharad Yadav's interview in which he reportedly stated "Samajik nyaya ka nara bakwaas hai (the slogan of social justice is nonsense)."

She too holds the diesel price-hike majorly responsible for the BJP rout.

Leader of Opposition in Bihar assembly Sushil Kumar Modi, for his part, refused comment on the matter.

The argument that the diesel price-hike significantly contributed to the BJP's woe, however, doesn't really hold water. If it was so, it should have had a similar, severe impact on Janata Dal (United) candidate Renu Kumari, who defeated the RJD's Naina Rana in Khagaria.

Though the RJD tally has not increased, its ally, the Communist Party of India-Marxist, won from Bhagalpur where Subodh Roy worsted Prabhas Chandra Tiwary of the BJP by over 40,000 votes. In Raj Mahal it was Congress candidate Thomas Hansda who avenged last year's defeat. In 1998 the BJP's Som Marandi had made it by the narrowest of margins: nine votes. This time Hansda won handsomely, by over 62,000.

In Purnea, it was Independent Rajesh Ranjan, alias Pappu Yadav, who defeated BJP MP Jay Krishna Mandal. By the largest margin in the state -- 250,000-odd votes.

Pappu, a prime accused in the murder of CPI-M MLA Ajit Sarkar last year, had fought the election from jail. Though a known criminal, he won simply because his performance as the Samajwadi Party MP was much better than that of Mandal.

The most surprising aspect of the BJP's defeat is that it came when the opposition was in complete disarray. There was a virtual revolt in the RJD and its poll understanding with the Congress was almost over. The buoyed-up BJP had put up a united face; yet it failed to make any impact.

Ironically, the JD-U that won the fourth seat, too, was a divided house, with tension simmering over the induction of former Union minister Ram Lakhan Singh Yadav into its fold.

The BJP's defeat is a morale booster to the RJD as the assembly election is only two months away. While the JD-U's tally increased to 18, the BJP's remained stuck on 23, thus delivering its bargaining position a severe blow.

Which gives a distinct advantage to Opposition leader Sushil Kumar in the chief ministerial race. Also, JD-U leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan and Nitish Kumar have emerged stronger.

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