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DMK thinking of joint assembly, LS polls

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

With the new electoral alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam taking shape, a section of the ruling party in Tamil Nadu is considering the possibility of clubbing the election to the state assembly with the mid-term election to the Lok Sabha.

"With a 'Vajpayee wave' sweeping the state, some circles in the ruling party are studying the advantages of simultaneous polls," an informed source said. "They are weighing the pros and cons, both short-term and long-term. While the advantages over the short-term cannot be gainsaid, those over the long-term are doubtful."

According to the pro-election section, the DMK should capitalise on the current wave in the state, "which is as much anti-Jayalalitha as it is pro-BJP". By doing so, it will get another five-year term in Fort St George, though its current term will be shortened by almost two years. But more importantly, the party will inflict a mortal wound on its rival, the All-India Anna DMK. Given the court cases involving Jayalalitha and some of her former ministers, they give the AIADMK next to no chance of bouncing back like it did in last year's Lok Sabha election after the rout of 1996.

The pro-election lobby also points to the need for the DMK to identify a successor to Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi. "Whether it is someone from his family, like nephew and former Union minister 'Murasoli' Maran or son and Mayor of Madras M K Stalin, or someone from outside, a successor will need time to settle down. And what better way to do it than under Karunanidhi's tutelage?"

Partymen believe a successor identified and nurtured by Karunanidhi will stand a better chance of survival and success than one selected later. In this context, they refer to the vertical split in the DMK in 1993, leading to the formation of the Marumalarchi DMK, whose leader Vaiko is now walking back to the DMK front in the BJP's company.

"Karunanidhi converted a future Stalin-Vaiko battle for succession within the DMK into a present one by painting Vaiko as a challenger to his leadership. And long-time DMK cadres stayed with him. There is a need for Karunanidhi to repeat that 'magic' for a possible successor, particularly after Vaiko moves into the DMK-led front and endears himself to party cadres all over again."

But the section opposing an early assembly election uses the same argument. "For one, it will re-start a fraternal war that we had fought and won, with the likes of the MDMK in our company. For another, there is no reason to expect anything scary on the assembly front, as the DMK already has a two-thirds majority. Even the 39-member Tamil Maanila Congress, our ally in the 1996 election, walking out on the DMK will do no damage to the party or government, as that party has lost the people's sympathy after voting against the motion of confidence in the Lok Sabha," said one.

While the pro-poll section says a defeated AIADMK and a demoralised TMC should be easy prey in a combined election, the other side argues that such a situation could create new political enemies for the party. "It looks as if the DMK front, with the BJP, PMK and MDMK in it, will sweep whatever polls are held now. And any mortal wound inflicted on the AIADMK and TMC now will only strengthen the DMK's equally ambitious allies like the BJP, MDMK and PMK, not necessarily in that order," they say.

In this context, the source refers to the BJP conference held at Trichy in March when that party's differences with the AIADMK were growing. Significantly, that meeting, with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee present, declared that the party would lead the state government after the 2001 election.

"Obviously, the BJP is clear about its long-term objective, notwithstanding its new-found love for the DMK. And eliminating existing political enemies like the AIADMK and the TMC will only create a favourable situation for the BJP," said the source quoted earlier.

The no-poll section also cites a practical problem. Though the Pattali Makkal Katchi has decided to join the DMK-BJP front after some hesitation, and founder-leader S Ramadoss called on Karunanidhi on Monday after a long gap, they may find the seat-sharing exercise taxing if it has to be done for both the Lok Sabha and the assembly.

The PMK, MDMK, and perhaps even the BJP, are keen to get more seats for the Lok Sabha election than the five each they got from the AIADMK last year. Bringing the assembly seats also into the bargain may make the negotiations more complex. "It could tarnish the positive image of the evolving front," the DMK politician opposed to a joint poll said.

The DMK and PMK both have their stronghold in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu, with the ruling party winning only 19 of the 70-odd seats in the southern districts when it returned to power after a long gap in 1989. The return of the MDMK, with its southern base, to the DMK-led front could replace the lost TMC support in the region, but the party will still have to grapple with the PMK's demands for 40-plus seats, most of them in the northern districts.

"On at least two earlier occasions, talks between the two parties have failed over seat-sharing. Even last year, the PMK walked over to the AIADMK front only because the DMK would not allot it even two Lok Sabha seats. The party ultimately got five, and won four, with a minister of state in the Vajpayee government. Even this time, Ramadoss was haggling only over seat-sharing, and the DMK sent positive signals through his friend and Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress leader Vazhapadi K Ramamurthy," the source said.

The Union petroleum minister was present when Ramadoss, shedding his known egoist reservations, called on Karunanidhi on May 3.

Clearly, therefore, sharing seats for an assembly election will prove much tougher. "First, we do not have as many seats to spare the PMK in our common strongholds. Secondly, any concessions granted to the PMK have to be matched by similar concessions to the MDMK. That may hurt feelings in the state BJP, which will have to be soothed. That will create complications we can do without," said the anti-poll politician.

But the other side uses the same argument. "Any such alliance is sure to sweep the assembly poll too, as our alliance with the TMC did in 1996. That means even after satisfying the demands of our new allies, the DMK will sweep the assembly polls too, to cross the cut-off mark of 117 for forming a government on its own. We may end up contesting around 150 seats out of 232 (with two more nominated members) and still win in at least 140, giving us the cushion we need."

Though the debate is continuing, any decision on holding a simultaneous election will depend ultimately on the timing of the Lok Sabha poll. "Since it is delayed, the DMK will have time to evaluate the real impact of the Vajpayee wave," the source said.

A lot will also depend on the nature of the evolving opposition. How the TMC, Congress and AIADMK mix, if at all, will go a long way in deciding the DMK stand.

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