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Naidu hopes his 'performing govt' will win

Shireen in Hyderabad

In a way, the political situation in Andhra Pradesh on the eve of the assembly election later this year closely resembles the scenario that prevailed in the state prior to the 1989 legislative poll.

In 1989, then chief minister Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao committed a sort of political harakiri by sacking all the 31 ministers of his cabinet for the leakage of budget details.

This led to a near-rebellion in the Telugu Desam Party. Leaders like K E Krishnamurthy, K Jana Reddy, Mudragada Padmanabham, Vasantha Nageswara Rao and several others left the TDP to join (or rejoin) the Congress.

Muddu Krishnama Naidu, M Narasimhulu and scores of MLAs who remained with NTR were, however, resentful of their leader's maverick acts. The sacking of ministers proved to be NTR's undoing and his political problems got compounded from then onwards.

The Congress took full advantage of the discontent in the NTR's camp. Leaders like YSR, J C Diwakar Reddy, Mohammed Jani and D K Samarasimha Reddy embarrassed NTR on the floor of the assembly during its last sessions in 1989.

Then APCC chief Marri Channa Reddy also galvanised the state Congress by launching campaigns like 'one crore signatures', jail bharo and other agitations.

Then state governor Kumudben Joshi also contributed her mite by kicking up controversies against NTR on issues such as the Lok Ayukta's appointment.

The Seenaiah Sena, founded by N Sreenivasulu Reddy, who had quit NTR cabinet to launch a campaign against him in 1987, also helped the Congress by launching virulent propaganda against NTR.

The caste polarisation in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in the wake of the murder of Congress legislator Vangaveeti Mohana Ranga Rao in December 1988 in Vijayawada while he was on a fast demanding adequate protection led to considerable erosion in the TDP's base.

However, the most noteworthy factor that helped the Congress in 1989 was then prime minister and All India Congress Committee president Rajiv Gandhi. As a young leader and son of Indira Gandhi (lovingly called as Indiramma by the people in the state), Rajiv Gandhi had established an instant rapport with the people of the state.

His election meetings in 1989 attracted huge crowds everywhere: coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema and Telangana.

The simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha polls also contributed to the Congress's resounding victory in the election.

The Congress almost swept the Lok Sabha polls in the state, bagging 39 out of 42 seats and secured a near two-thirds majority by securing 183 out of 294 seats in the assembly.

NTR's Telugu Desam Party lost power in the state. Its tally came down to 74 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats.

Now, again, the political scene is gradually shifting towards the Congress. The TDP seems to be losing ground fairly rapidly, riven as it is with dissension, factionalism and squabbles forcing Naidu to stay the party's organisational polls from mandal level upwards.

Though the Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao-Telugu Desam Party led by Lakshmi Parvathi, NTR's second wife, has lost its sheen after successive reverses in the 1996 and 1998 Lok Sabha polls, what is causing serious worry to the TDP leadership is the encouraging response to NTR's maverick son and Naidu's brother-in-law Nandamuri Harikrishna, who has floated the Anna TDP to carry on his father's political legacy.

It was Harikrishna's revolt that had unnerved NTR in August/ September 1995. Naidu had successfully used Harikrishna to take on NTR for allowing Lakshmi Parvathi to emerge as an extra-constitutional force -- a ' dushta shakti' (evil force) who had cast her spell on the Telugu thespian-turned-politician.

Harikrishna, who was dumped by Naidu after a six-month spell as transport minister, launched his Anna TDP in January.

He has turned a bitter foe of Naidu, accusing him of reversing NTR's pro-poor policies and squandering public money on pet programmes.

Unlike in 1989, the TDP is isolated on the eve of the 1999 election.

The TDP had an electoral alliance with the two Communist parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal in 1989.

After the TDP deserted the United Front and extended support to the BJP-led coalition government at the Centre, the Left parties broke off their 14-year alliance with the TDP.

The decision to support the BJP government also alienated the minorities, especially Muslims, from the TDP and led to the resignation of Basheeruddin Babu Khan, an influential leader, from the Naidu Cabinet in March 1998.

The BJP, which put up an unexpectedly good show in the 1998 Lok Sabha election winning four seats and securing 18 percent of the votes in the state, has made it known that it will not have any poll alliance with the TDP for the assembly poll.

In the absence of electoral alliances with the Communist parties and the BJP and the Anna TDP and NTR-TDP cutting into the TDP votes, Naidu faces a tough task in the assembly election.

The multi-cornered contests with the BJP, Left parties, Anna TDP and NTR-TDP putting up their candidates will make the Congress chances that much easier.

Despite such a difficult scenario, Naidu is unfazed by the opposition onslaught. He has reacted sharply to YSR's tirade on Janma Bhoomi by offering to hold a referendum on the continuance or otherwise of this 'novel scheme' after the ongoing session of the assembly ends by the month-end.

Naidu has, however, chosen to ignore the charges of amassing of wealth levelled against him by YSR.

Naidu's party leaders have alleged that YSR faces 22 cases, including several criminal and poll-related offences.

This is hotly denied by YSR's supporters who claim that only half-a-dozen cases are pending now while the other cases had been disposed of by the courts exonerating YSR of the charges.

Naidu feels his government's achievements over the last three and a half years will stand him in good stead and the people will certainly reward him for taking Andhra Pradesh onto the high growth trajectory and working out a long-term perspective plan for the state through Vision-2020 document.

Naidu's view is that the people will definitely back a performing government and bring it back to power in successive elections.

He also has the ambition of ruling Andhra Pradesh for at least two decades like West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. However, the Congress seems determined to frustrate his dreams by snatching power from him in the ensuing assembly poll.

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