US EDITION
COLUMNISTS
DIARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ELECTIONS
ARCHIVES

Search Rediff

JD split pushing India into two-party system

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

The Janata Dal split and the Third Front's ineffectiveness have convinced political observers that the country is heading for a two-party system with the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress as main contenders.

The bitter fight between JD's H D Deve Gowda and Sharad Yadav will benefit the BJP and the Congress in the forthcoming election. A former JD general secretary, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the split as well as the internecine personality clashes among senior leaders is fast making his party a "moribund organisation," and could eventually spell its "death-knell."

He said the Lok Sabha and assembly polls were likely to make the factions redundant in Indian politics because the majority of their candidates "would lose their deposit."

In the Deve Gowda faction, he continued, only the former prime minister could win. Others like Professor Madhu Dandavate and Bapu Kaldate -- "old war horses now deprived of their fighting prowess" -- would find it extremely tough to get elected.

The JD leader believed that the situation was slightly better in the Sharad Yadav faction, which was now in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Yadav, with the Samata Party supporters coming to his aid, could win from Madhepura, from where he was roundly defeated by Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Laloo Prasad Yadav last time around.

Ram Vilas Paswan could also win from the Hajipur constituency, again thanks to the Samata Party. Last time too, the Samata Party had come to Paswan's rescue.

Lok Shakti leader and Union Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hegde, whose party has merged with the Janata Dal, along with the Samata Party, is also expected to win as he has the NDA behind him. Thus, with all these leaders endeavouring to form a new government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it appears that the BJP would be the ultimate gainer.

As of now, the Congress's election strategy, with Kargil as the main issue, does not seem to have impressed many. Says political observer Suresh Raichura: "Kargil is a negative issue which seeks to pin the blame on the BJP-led government for alleged defensive lapses on the nation's security."

Raichura said despite the loss of lives, the entire nation was jubilant that the Indian armed forces had succeeded in driving back the Pakistani intruders. Thus, this was a victory, the credit for which would naturally go to the BJP-led government.

He said that with the JD in a shambles, and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party faring no better, especially in Uttar Pradesh, the ground was open for a battle royale between the BJP and the Congress and their respective allies.

Other Third Front parties like Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party, he continued, might be able to attract votes in a few states like Maharashtra; but they too were carping a lot on the Kargil issue, which was not likely to pay dividends.

Incidentally, the RJD is keen to make an alliance with Sonia Gandhi in Bihar. Laloo Yadav's electoral compulsions have arisen because of the merger of the Samata with Sharad Yadav's JD. Laloo apparently hopes to negate the new combine with one of his own.

Tell us what you think of this report