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NCP certain to dent Congress base in Maharashtra

Neeraj Bajpai in New Delhi

The newly-floated Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar is likely to cause a substantial dent in the Congress base in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections.

Polling will be held in the state on September 4 and 11. According to a computer analysis, the NCP is expected to nibble into the Congress vote bank in at least 15 constituencies spread over the state which sends 48 members to the Lower House of Parliament.

The fledgling party is also set to play a crucial role in deciding the electoral fortunes of the ruling Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party combine. Of the 33 seats the Congress won last time, the party's victory margin in 14 constituencies ranged from 0.47 to 9.09 per cent, an indication of the tough competition faced by the party despite a high index of opposition nnity in its favour.

Though the SS-BJP combine can draw some relief from the fact that this year's IOU is rather low, akin to the 1996 poll scenario, they still have to contend with the anti-incumbency factor.

The Congress is in for a formidable opposition from the NCP especially since Pawar is now busy trying to form electoral deals with the Republican Party of India, the Samajwadi Party and other outfits including the Janata Dal.

The 15 constituencies where the Pawar factor may play a significant role are spread out in western and northern Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Marathwada.

Fragmentation of opposition to the ruling SS-BJP since the previous elections has added a new dimension to the poll scenario. The combine had been relegated to the second position with 10 seats despite a four per cent positive swing in its favour.

A close scrutiny of Pawar's clout and his past performance indicates his potential to make various parties' calculations go haywire and cause major upsets.

In 1978, he split the Congress in the state and aligned with the opposition to form the Progressive Democratic Front. He then replaced Vasantdada Patil as the chief minister.

The Pawar faction contested the 1980 and 1984 Lok Sabha polls under the banner of the Indian Congress Socialist. Then at the 1985 centenary celebrations of the Congress, Rajiv Gandhi readmitted Pawar into the party.

An analysis of the results of the 1980 and 1984 Lok Sabha elections gives an estimate of the core base of Pawar. In 1980, the ICS contested 24 seats as part of the PDF. In the 24 seats it contested, it polled an average of 22.23 per cent of the total vaild votes but won only one seat.

Likewise in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls, it contested 15 seats and made impressive gains. Its average vote share rose from 22.23 per cent to 37.25 per cent in these seats despite a strong sympathy wave in favour of the Congress due to Indira Gandhi's assassination. The ICS bagged two seats and in both the seats, it bagged more than 50 per cent of the total votes polled.

In 1980, the Congress polled 53 per cent of the votes in the 24 Lok Sabha constituencies where the Pawar faction fielded its candidates and polled an average of 23 per cent votes.

In 1984, the Congress polled 50 per cent of the votes in the 24 seats the Pawar faction fielded its candidates. This time, the latter polled 37 per cent of the total votes.

The consistency of Pawar's base is evident in these constituencies where even during its worst performance in 1980, the ICS had polled 23 per cent of the votes.

In the 1998 elections, the Congress polled 53 per cent of the votes in these constituencies, but in the background of Pawar's base in the area, his newly-formed party has the potential to take away 23 per cent of the votes.

During 1998, the Congress had an electoral alliance with smaller parties like the RPI and the Samajwadi Party whose main vote bank consists of backward communities and Muslims, which has major presence and may tilt the balance. The NCP has already struck a poll pact with the SP but talks with the RPI are still on.

The voter analysis indicates that in 1998, these minorities shifted towards the Congress polling 43 per cent of the votes. Due to a positive three per cent swing, the Congress snatched away 23 seats of the SS-BJP alliance. The Congress on its own got 43 per cent and along with its allies it polled 49 per cent, seven per cent more than that of the SS-BJP combine that got 42 per cent.

Despite a positive swing of four per cent, the SS-BJP could not retain the number of seats it had won in 1996 elections when it had cornered 33 seats leaving only 15 to the Congress. Most of the anti-SS-BJP votes were scattered among the Congress, RPI and SP during 1996, but in 1998, they joined hands and fetched 33 seats to the Congress and four to the RPI.

UNI

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