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India may be invited to CTBT conference

Ranvir Nayar in Paris

India is likely to be invited to participate in the International Ministerial Conference on the controversial Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty slated for September.

International experts say though India has not signed the treaty, it could be invited to the conference in an observer status.

This seems to be the growing opinion of a large section of the world's nuclear powers who met in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev recently to discuss the progress made in the signing and ratification of the controversial treaty, slated to come into force from September.

The meeting of the ad hoc task force that was set up last year, following the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests, was attended by 14 countries besides the European Commission. The 14 included China, Ukraine, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa besides the G8 group of countries.

The task force was supposed to monitor the progress of the two latest nuclear powers towards accepting the terms of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1172 that called upon the two to implement a large number of measures including signing and ratifying a number of international treaties like the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Fissile Material Control Treaty.

But the group's immediate and primary task was to engage the two countries into negotiations leading to their signing and ratifying the CTBT before the September deadline. The task force got a big boost last year when Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared at the United Nations that India will sign the CTBT.

The international observers were even more optimistic earlier this year when Vajpayee travelled to Lahore and signed the Lahore Declaration with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief. That was the mood that dominated the group when it met in Tokyo in February.

''At that meeting, which was held in the sunny days of the bus diplomacy between the two countries and the Lahore Declaration, many members were very positive about the future, perhaps a shade too optimistic,'' recounts a source who was present during the closed-door deliberations.

Sources say during the Tokyo meeting, the mood was lifted to unreasonable heights and some members expected to see some very quick results. However, with the current situation in Kargil, most people now agree it is highly improbable that either Pakistan or India will sign up before deadline expires.

Under the terms of the CTBT, which was negotiated almost two years ago, the treaty has to be signed and ratified by all the 44 countries which have been listed as either nuclear capable or proven nuclear powers of the world. If even one of the 44 listed countries does not sign and ratify the treaty by the September deadline, the CTBT cannot come into force.

Now, the major world powers are faced with this prospect. Under the treaty conditions, if the 44 named countries have not signed up, then the ministerial meeting takes place every second year till the necessary ratifications have been obtained for the treaty to enter into force.

Observers say while some hawks insisted that India should not be invited to the conference unless it signs up, the general mood was that it was better to involve India in the proceedings, rather than isolate it.

''As the September deadline approaches, it is becoming increasingly clear that most countries now favour involving India in some role rather than keeping it out in the cold,'' a participant in the meeting told rediff.com soon after the meeting.

But the future course of action for the task force is even less certain. The options for the nuclear community are very limited. If they follow the conditions of the treaty, they will have to meet in 2001, hoping that by then all the countries would have ratified the document. If, it has still not happenned, they would have to meet again two years later and so on.

However, some nations are in favour of a radical solution. ''We have had suggestions that the September meeting should alter the treaty conditions so it can be brought into force with the existing ratifications. However, that may be too radical a solution and may not find favour with a majority of members,'' an expert who is part of the task force said.

What is more likely, says the expert, is that the countries will cut down the waiting period for the next meeting. They could meet again next year and hope to use the intervening period to mount pressure on India and Pakistan to ratify the treaty.

The Kargil Crisis

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