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AIADMK is hurt again

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is 'satisfied' while the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham is `hurt' over Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee shooting down the latter's demands for the dismissal of the M Karunanidhi government in Tamil Nadu.

Worse still, the AIADMK is upset over the prime minister referring to the dismissal of his own government while 'defending' the DMK ministry in the state.

"Dismissing the DMK government is like dismissing my own government," Vajpayee told the media in Delhi on Friday. He was not only reacting to Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee endorsing the AIADMK demand, but was also seen as referring to Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Yadav's demand for the 'dismissal' of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government at the Centre.

"The prime minister knows full well that the government at the Centre cannot be dismissed under the provisions of the Constitution," says a AIADMK source. "As such, for him to equate the demand for Karunanidhi's dismissal with his own dismissal-demand, smacks of over-reaction, siding with the DMK."

In contrast, a DMK leader interprets the Vajpayee observation, differently. "The prime minister was obviously referring to the possibility of the AIADMK withdrawing support to the Vajpayee government, to join hands with the Congress, if and when the demand for the dismissal of the DMK state government was met," says the DMK leader.

Informed sources too refer to the prime minister "implying that he was no fool to sign the death-warrant of his own government by meeting the AIADMK demand for the dismissal of the DMK government. That's the ace up the prime minister's sleeve, and he better not play it."

According to these sources, the BJP seems to be looking ahead, beyond any possible snap polls to the Lok Sabha. "There is no question now of the BJP aligning with the DMK. There is no guaranteee yet that the AIADMK will stick on to the BJP in a snap poll, or cross over to the Congress, if and when the Vajpayee government falls. Thus, the BJP is preparing itself for a post-poll scenario and that's what Vajpayee seeks to convey."

As this source points out, Jayalalitha has since clarified that her party's support is only for the Vajpayee leadership, which was not transferable to any other BJP leader. She said so openly at a media meet in Madras on Saturday.

"That means, the AIADMK will stick to its mandate to support the Vajpayee government, but will have its options open, should it fall despite the party voting in favour of any confidence vote that comes to be moved by the prime minister."

Jayalalitha has repeatedly said that she would not be the cause for a mid-term poll. "Read with her latest statement that the AIADMK support is only for the Vajpayee leadership in the BJP, it means that she will look up to the Congress. That includes both the formation of an alternative government, and snap polls. Rather, she is leaving those decisions to the Congress."

That being the case, says this source, Vajpayee would like the BJP, even under a different leader, to keep its options open towards the DMK rival of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. "Of course, that will apply only to the post-poll scenario, if the BJP is in the running for forming a government. Or, to the BJP and DMK working together in the Opposition benches, should the fall of the Vajpayee government, if it came to that, lead to an alternate rule."

The Vajpayee statement has found its echo in the state, already. Pattali Makkal Kattchi founder Dr S Ramadoss who was veering round to the AIADMK demand, has since opposed it. Incidentally, he had supported the dismissal of the Rabri Devi government in Bihar last fortnight, even while his party was known to be opposed to Article 356.

For the present, say these sources, the Vajpayee government can breathe easy. "There is no seeming threat from the AIADMK, which by itself should be a great relief." But the situation may change, if the ongoing Special Courts case in the Supreme Court turns unfavourable to Jayalalitha, and the AIADMK is forced to take up the 'dismissal question' more seriously."

In a way, the `dismissal question' was discussed by Jayalalitha with visiting Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee in Madras on Friday. It was a victory of sorts for the AIADMK supremo, after Mamata at one point in time asking the BJP to drop their Tamil Nadu ally at the Centre.

Both women leaders were also seeking to head separate ginger groups within the BJP coalition, but failed. Yet, Mamata knocking at Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence door meant, she has accepted her limitations and accepted the AIADMK's political supremacy.

In a way, both the AIADMK and the Trinamul Congress stand on the same plane. Both want the Vajpayee leadership to continue, and are averse to backing any other BJP leader in his place, and have a line open to the Congress. "Both of us want to strengthen Vajpayee's hands, but there are problems within the BJP," Mamata told the media after their meeting.

Jayalalitha was even more forthright a day later, when she said the AIADMK support was only for the Vajpayee leadership of the BJP.

At another level, by joining forces, the two leaders feel they may have a better bargaining power, now with the BJP and later with the Congress, if it came to that. And in doing that bargaining, Mamata seems to be veering round to accepting Jayalalitha as her leader -- just as the electoral allies of the AIADMK did after last year's polls and have nothing to complain.

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