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Return of the JD

It is a political formation that has often defied description. Seemingly occupying the centrist stage of Indian politics, the Janata Dal -- which English journalese has abbreviated into the quick to use JD -- has often confounded itself, leave alone the voters. Does principle matter more than personalities? Is it an ideological edge it seeks to lend to Indian politics? These questions have often been debated and discussed, in an effort to put a label on this amorphous organisation, but like the amoeba, the JD, thanks to those populating it, re-invents itself every now and then. Perhaps, the wheel was the apt symbol of this organisation.

Today, it is a truism that the Bharatiya Janata Party was the biggest benefactor of the Congress's declining fortunes. Actually, that conveys an erroneous impression of the Indian electorate. It is not as if the voter has done a U-turn one fine day, after plumping for the centrist monolith in election after election. The Congress may have occupied a pre-eminent position in the electoral arena since 1952, but when one looks back there always was a rump, representing a small mass of people disenchanted with the party's performance in governance. What prevented this little group from expanding, growing to a position from which the Congress could be challenged was the Nehru mystique, which the daughter understood so well and which her son could never master.

But even the mater could not ward off the growing demand, need for an alternative political formation. When the Janata Party finally succeeded in replacing the Congress at the Centre, it was evident that only the party had been defeated. Congressism was alive and kicking: the JP, after all, was nothing but a bunch of ex-Congressman.

Given this fact, it was only a question of time before the Congress succeeded in replacing it. Ironically, despite the letdown, the voters were once again willing to entrust their fortunes to the JP/JD just 12 years later. Even more ironical was the fact that it took another ex-Congressman to energise the JD into a fighting organisation.

Two instances were all it took for the fact to sink in, that the Congress party was vulnerable, and that its only stock in trade, the Nehru mystique did not hold much water. This was also the right time for the party to rediscover its programmes and policies, and put the personality cult on the backburner, and its refusal and/or inability to do so has brought it its current state.

But it is the JD that is a fascinating study in politics. After 1989-90, it is a moot point if voters will ever again entrust their fate, on a large-scale, to this organisation. It may continue to have pockets of influence here and there, like Karnataka and so on, but beyond that, the opposition space has been yielded to the Bharatiya Janata Party.

It is then obviously incorrect to say that the BJP benefited from the decline in the Congress's fortunes. It was the JD that the people first turned to, and only when it let them down, not once but twice, that they veered around to the BJP.

But the JD is a political survivor. It has managed to pull along for so long, even when devoid of men and material, that its present predicament should not lead one to believe that the party has been finally interred. It has shown in the past that it is capable of a resurrection, so there is no reason to believe to the contrary now.

In fact, this is the most interesting phase in the evolution of the JD. For the record, it has split down the middle, the more influential section walking into the BJP's National Democratic Alliance. The significant part is that they have not merged into the BJP, but only into its grouping which fights the election on a plank quite different from the BJP's own manifesto. While on the surface, this may appear like a volte-face on the JD office-bearers, in reality it is not. For most of them, anyway, anti-Congressism goes back a longer way than anti-BJPism.

In fact, in 1989, Vishwanath Pratap had no hesitation in taking the help of the 'communal' BJP to bring down his arch enemy Rajiv Gandhi. But for this, the BJP's climb to the top would have been more arduous than it has been.

The real import of the JD faction walking over to the NDA will be seen in the post-election scenario. The former JD constituents that are wreathing saffron over themselves today are obviously some kind of a Trojan Horse within the BJP. Their aim may not be take over the BJP, but merely to leap to the top using it. If all the JD's men could reap around 50 Lok Sabha seats in this election, their bargaining power goes up considerably vis-à-vis both the groupings.

In that sense, elections will continue to be fought even after the counting of the seats is long over. The Third Front is not fighting this election together; but make no mistake, that does not mean it will continue separately post-poll too. The real danger, thus, is to the BJP, whose prime ministerial candidate has unreservedly welcomed his former foes into the NDA.

If the ex-JD folk garner around 50 seats, and Sharad Pawar's grouping on the other hand grab another 50, the election to the 13th Lok Sabha could well be blown. It would then mean back to the drawing board for both Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. And given the latter's relative youth, it's anyone's guess who the lambe race ka ghoda will be...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy