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India may not meet CTBT deadline

India is unlikely to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty before the September 1999 deadline without conditions, a leading think-tank in the United States has concluded. The same applies for the Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty.

Moreover, India is in no position to discontinue its missile weaponisation programme, the Washington-based Institute for International Economic Relations has said in its latest report, to be released soon.

The sanctions imposed by the United States after the May 1998 nuclear tests by India need not be characterised as an 'utter failure' as India and the US have initiated a process of engagement on nuclear issues. ''Diplomacy continues to be the art of the possible, as opposed to the desirable,'' the report added.

But the study categorically classifies the sanctions on India as a 'failure' in terms of policy outcome and effectiveness.

The US has lost exports worth $ 15-19 billion and about 200,000 jobs due to unilateral sanctions imposed on 26 countries in one year. Terming sanctions as a 'growth industry in the US', it said that they covered 2.3 billion people or 42 per cent of the world population.

Summarising some lessons for the US administration, the study pointed out that sanctions cannot be effective against a major state. If more countries are to join the sanctions spree, chances of success diminish.

''Long-term adversaries or those with near-zero commercial ties are not likely to buckle and trading partners comply with sanctions within overall relationships,'' it added.

If the cost of sanctions is less than 2.5 per cent of gross national product, chances of success are bright. But if the cost is one per cent of the GNP, there will be no serious bleeding for the economy.

Revealing these findings at the India International Centre in New Delhi last night, Defence Research and Development Organisation Chief Advisor (Technology) R Santhanam said economic sanctions and technology controls imposed on India have not had a major impact on the economy or on ongoing technology projects.

From the technical perspective, some time-cost overruns have occurred, but these have been of the controllable type. ''Sanctions have also spurred considerable and successful indigenous development of components and materials,'' he added.

UNI

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