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Govt survey gives BJP, allies the edge

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

A survey conducted by the government has given an edge to the BJP and its allies in the forthcoming general election, top home ministry officials said today.

They told this correspondent that the survey, conducted at the behest of the Prime Minister's Office, had brought glad tidings to the Vajpayee government.

The survey was conducted using government machinery, including the Intelligence Bureau, it was pointed out. The officials contended that the survey was ''conducted in an impartial manner, without any pulls and pressures from any quarter."

The survey covered Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. However, the survey does not indicate the final positions in the 'cowbelt ' states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh because ''of the squabbling over seat-sharing in both the ruling coalition as well as the opposition camps,'' sources said.

They pointed out that in Bihar, the BJP and the Samata Party are at loggerheads because the latter has demanded to contest half of the state's 54 Lok Sabha seats. Consequently, with the picture still hazy, the government survey in Bihar is pending.

Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal and its ally, Congress, too have failed to arrive at a seat-sharing arrangement in Bihar, despite three rounds of talks. While the state Congress chief, Sadanand Singh, has demanded 30 seats, Laloo, driving a hard bargain, is willing to concede only 14.

In Uttar Pradesh too, the electoral picture is yet to crystallise. The BJP is finding it difficult to pacify its allies -- the Loktantrik Congress, the Jantantrik BSP and the Samata Party -- all of which want more seats.

The picture is no clearer on the other side of the political spectrum. Major opposition parties -- the Congress, Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and the BSP -- are all threatening to go it alone.

In Andhra Pradesh, the preliminary survey has given 15 seats to the Congress, 19 to the TDP and six to the BJP. In the 1998 poll, the Congress had bagged 22 Lok Sabha seats, the TDP 12 and the BJP four.

The survey has, so far, given 13 seats to the RJD in Bihar, taking into account the party's strong points and weaknesses in various constituencies. The BJP-Samata Party combine has been given 31 seats and the Congress six. In the last election, the BJP had got 20 seats, the RJD 17 and the Samata Party 10.

According to the survey, the BJP will get one seat in Jammu and Kashmir, while its chances in one another constituency are doubtful. While the survey gives the Leh Parliamentary seat to the Congress and, it gives three seats to the National Conference in the Valley. In the previous polls, the BJP had bagged two seats, the National Conference three and the Congress one.

So far in Madhya Pradesh, the survey has given 14 seats to the Congress and 21 seats to the BJP. The picture is unclear in rest of the constituencies. The state has 40 Lok Sabha seats. In the last elections, the BJP had got 30, while the Congress won 10 seats.

The survey has given 25 seats to the BJP-Sena combine in Maharashtra, eight to nine seats to the NCP and 10 to the Congress. In the last election, the BJP had won from four constituencies, the Shiv Sena six and the Congress had bagged 33 seats.

In Rajasthan, the survey gives 17 seats to the BJP with the likelihood of another seat going its way. The Congress has been given seven seats. The picture in rest of the constituencies is unclear.

The Left Front has so far been given 20 seats, the Trinamul Congress 10 and the Congress two seats in West Bengal. The picture is unclear in other constituencies.

The survey has given a "fifty-fifty" chance to the BJP and the Congress in Gujarat. However, it has noted that as the campaigning picks up momentum, the BJP's chances would brighten.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-BJP combine has been given 23 seats and the AIADMK nine.

Home ministry officials underscored that even though the survey was preliminary in nature, the political trends were "quite discernible". The final report is likely to be submitted to the government in a fortnight's time.

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