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Telugu Desam scared of simultaneous LS, assembly poll

Shireen in Hyderabad

The Union Cabinet's decision to recommend the dissolution of the 12th Lok Sabha has dampened the spirits of the Telugu Desam Party which was elated by the failure of the Congress to form an alternative government at the Centre.

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and TDP president Nara Chandrababu Naidu held discussions with senior leaders of the party on Monday afternoon and took stock of the Delhi developments.

Naidu felt that the Congress would be the 'biggest loser' for playing 'nasty and hasty' politics. He also claimed that Congress president Sonia Gandhi's image has taken a beating due to her 'inexperienced handling of things'.

According to party sources, in Naidu's analysis, the Bharatiya Janata Party has been able to retrieve its credibility to a large extent by playing its cards well during the crisis brought about by the fall of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government on the floor of the Lok Sabha on April 17.

However, the looming mid-term poll has alarmed the TDP leadership. All along, Naidu and other TDP leaders have maintained that the country can ill-afford another snap poll at this stage since it could shatter the economy. The poll would cost the national exchequer a whopping Rs 10 billion.

Also, the TDP has been apprehensive of its prospects in such a snap poll to the Lok Sabha.

TDP spokesman Dr Ummareddy Venkateswarlu summed up the party position thus: "We are ready for elections but we do not want them frequently."

It will be the third Lok Sabha elections since 1994, when the state had assembly polls. In the 1996 poll, the Telugu Desam bagged 16 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. But the tally declined to 12 in the 1998 polls. In both these polls the TDP has had an electoral alliance with the two Communist parties. But this time the TDP will have to contest the polls alone, without any alliance with either the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Left parties.

The findings of a recent survey conducted by a Telugu daily have only added to the worries of the TDP leadership. The Eenadu survey, published in March this year, predicted that the Congress would sweep the Lok Sabha polls in Andhra Pradesh by securing 35 to 38 seats.

The TDP has reasons to worry if simultaneous polls are held to the Lok Sabha and the state assembly. In the normal course, the elections to the 294-member AP legislative assembly are due in December since the present House's tenure ends on January 10, 2000. But the Election Commission can advance the elections by six months so as to hold simultaneous polls to the assembly and Lok Sabha.

The TDP's prospects will be seriously affected in case such simultaneous polls held. The last time such simultaneous polls were held in 1989, the Congress swept the Lok Sabha polls in the state, bagging 39 out of 42 seats and stormed to power in the state by winning 180 out of 294 seats in the assembly. The TDP's tally was reduced to two Lok Sabha seats and 74 assembly seats.

Not only did the Telugu Desam Party lose power after a seven-year reign in the state but also its TDP founder N T Rama Rao lost the poll from Kalwakurthy assembly constituency though he was elected from Hindupur.

Since the formation of Andhra Pradesh, the Congress has always won a majority of Lok Sabha seats in the state, except in 1984.

In the 1957 elections, the Congress got 37 out of 43 seats in the state. In 1962, it bagged 34 out of 43 seats. The tally went up to 35 out of 41 seats in 1967. In 1971, however, the party managed to get 28 seats out of 41 with its splinter group -- the Telangana Praja Samithi which had spearheaded the agitation for a separate Telangana state -- securing 10 seats. In 1977, when the Congress was routed all over northern India in the wake of the Janata Party wave, the party got 41 out of 42 seats in the state.

In the 1980 elections, which saw Indira Gandhi regaining power, Andhra Pradesh returned Congress candidates from all the 42 constituencies. Indira Gandhi herself was elected with a huge majority from Medak. She retained the seat till her assassination in October 1984.

It was only in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections that the Congress fared quite poorly and its tally dwindled to an all-time low of six seats out of 42 in the state. The Telugu Desam Party bagged a record 30 seats following the sympathy wave for NTR who had been reinstated as chief minister after being dethroned by Nadendla Bhaskar Rao.

Yet, in 1989, the Congress bounced back in the Lok Sabha polls, securing 39 seats as against the TDP's two. In the 1991 polls, the Congress managed 25 out of 42 seats and the TDP's tally increased to 13. Six TDP MPs later defected to the Congress in 1992 to save the P V Narasimha Rao government. In the 1996 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won 22 seats, though the party was almost routed in the state in the 1994 assembly polls. The TDP's LS tally increased to 16.

Again, in the 1998 polls, the Congress retained 22 seats while the TDP's score dropped to 12. The BJP won four seats.

In this backdrop, the TDP is not pretty sure of its prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. The party leadership hopes that the Lok Sabha snap polls will precede the assembly elections.

"The assembly elections are due in December and there is no likelihood of these being advanced by the Election Commission," a TDP leader said.

Naidu feels that the people would certainly vote for a 'performing government' rather than a party (the Congress) whose leaders squabbled to get four chief ministers during 1978-82 and three chief ministers during 1989-94. It remains to be seen how the voters would behave this time.

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