Rout in two states could sound Vajpayee government's death-knell
George Iype in New Delhi
The Congress will bid for power at the Centre if the party routs the
Bharatiya Janata Party in two of the four provinces -- Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan -- going to the assembly polls in November.
A majority of the apex 23-member Congress Working Committee is of the
opinion that any attempt to pull down the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and
form an alternative coalition entirely depends on the mandate that the Congress
gets during the November assembly election.
The CWC, which met on Tuesday to prepare the party's strategy for the
state poll, felt the Congress stands a bright chance of winning the two BJP
strongholds -- Delhi and Rajasthan.
"Our assessment within the party is that the Congress will certainly win
in Delhi and Rajasthan because the BJP governments in these states have been
ineffective and unpopular," CWC member Rajesh Pilot told Rediff On The
NeT.
Therefore, he said, if the BJP is defeated in the assembly poll, especially
in these two states, "the shape of the Vajpayee coalition will change for
ever."
Pilot said the Congress is not preparing any plans to pull down the
Vajpayee government, but concentrating on the crucial state election.
"When the BJP's coalition partners themselves are scheming to
bring down Prime Minister Vajpayee, why should we worry," the senior
Congress leader remarked.
An anti-establishment mood swept away a major chunk of the BJP vote-bank in
the last general election in Rajasthan where it lost 20 out of the 25
constituencies. Political observers now predict a major blow to the party in
Rajasthan as the Lok Sabha pattern is expected to repeat in the coming round as
well.
The assembly election is crucial for the BJP as it is expected to alter the
future of the Congress strategy and shake the Vajpayee government. The Congress
could publicise an electoral rout of the BJP as an offshoot of the
party's poor governance at the Centre.
"The BJP's coalition partners are getting irritated, but they are keeping quiet
because the Congress has not tried to lure them into any new formation," P
J Kurien, chief whip of the party in the Lok Sabha, told Rediff On The NeT.
"The Vajpayee government may not be exactly shaky now. But we feel the
assembly election will change the shape of the BJP coalition," he
stated.
Even though the Congress leadership has postponed plans to oust the
Vajpayee government, the recurrent theme among senior CWC members now is whether
the party should take a risk by cobbling together a coalition government.
While the Congress's brainstorming session at Pachmarhi in Madhya
Pradesh early this month was seen as an exercise to revive the
party by stressing on its strength, party president Sonia Gandhi virtually
rejected the concept of coalitions altogether.
But the Congress party's public lack of interest in coalition
politics has angered Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha leaders like Mulayam Singh
Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav who have been forcing Sonia to oust the BJP
government.
Senior CWC leaders now insist that the party has to toe the coalition
arrangement at least for the short term. "We have to be realistic that the
Congress is no longer the old Congress. We are now in an era of coalition
politics and it will be dangerous for the party to isolate itself from coalition
arrangements at the Centre," a senior Congress leader told Rediff On The
NeT.
He said if the coming assembly election places the Congress in a position of
strength, "Soniaji will be able to call the shots in deciding the
complexion of an alternative government at the Centre."
Despite pressure from senior party leaders, Sonia in the past five months has
desisted from cobbling together a Congress-led coalition even when the Vajpayee
government showed signs of faltering.
Sonia has acted against pulling down the BJP government, arguing that being in
the Opposition the Congress should re-build and reorganise the party from the
grassroots.
Congress leaders now concede that ever since she took over the reins of the
party, Sonia has deftly kept the party unity to the core. "The forthcoming
assembly election will prove whether Sonia has really improved the state of
affairs in the Congress," remarked a Congress leader.
Therefore, he said Sonia has linked forming a government to the assembly
poll. By then, her chief negotiators with the Left parties -- Arjun Singh,
Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee -- are expected to reach a workable
arrangement with the Marxist leaders who have shown considerable interest to
take part in a Congress-led coalition.
Moreover, Sonia needs time to mend her uneasy relations with AIADMK
chief J Jayalalitha and the party's Lok Sabha leader Sharad Pawar, both
of whom will be key players in any coalition scheme that she prepares.
"But if the Congress's performance at the poll turns out to be a
disaster, then Sonia is expected to keep quiet and allow Vajpayee to
continue," the Congress leader added.
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