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The Rediff Special/ Dr N Bhaskara Rao

Bihar voters unhappy with Rabri rule, want fresh assembly election

Compared to the law and order situation in some states, Bihar may not stand out as an acute problem.

But going by the prevailing public opinion of voters in Bihar today, the state is a 'fit case' for dissolving the assembly and going in for a fresh election.

More than two-thirds of the Bihar voters are dissatisfied with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Laloo Prasad Yadav and the Rabri Devi government for their failures, particularly on the law and order and development fronts. They prefer the state going to the polls.

In Bhagalpur, Dhanbad, Dharbhanga and Ranchi districts opposition to Laloo Yadav is more pronounced.

In fact, two-thirds of voters think that Bihar has not developed and progressed during the regimes of Laloo Yadav and Rabri Devi. As many also think that the law and order situation and economic conditions have deteriorated during the Laloo Yadav and the Rabri Devi regimes.

Only 20 per cent of the voters think otherwise. On these issues, a quarter of Yadav voters think negatively.

However, 20 per cent of voters are still diehard supporters of Laloo Yadav and another 15 per cent support him either because they do not want the state to be split or because of some other reason.

That is, electoraly speaking, one-third of the voters are with Laloo Yadav's RJD.

Outside the proposed Vananchal state, support to Laloo Yadav is more than 40 per cent. That his stand on Vananchal has won him some additional support in the heartland of Bihar is evident from this Centre for Media Studies survey.

Little over 40 per cent of the voters are against splitting the state. A much higher percentage -- 53 per cent -- however favour the creation of the new state.

But 57 per cent of the voters think that such a division will be against Bihar's economic interests. Laloo Yadav seems to have succeeded in creating such an impression outside Vananchal districts.

Against such an appraisal of Laloo Yadav and Rabri Devi regimes by voters, it should not be surprising that half of the voters think that President's rule should have been imposed in Bihar. Nearly 35 per cent, however, oppose the move.

Voters are confused about President K R Narayanan's reluctance on slapping central rule. Only a quarter of voters support the President's decision on this issue. However, one-third of the voters feel the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government should send back the proposal for the President's reconsideration.

Such is the confusion that little over 50 per cent of the voters prefer an election to the state assembly now. Thirtynine per cent feel there is no need to dissolve the assembly.

These are some of the highlights of a CMS field survey in Bihar early this week in the wake of the current impasse and continued campaign by Bharatiya Janata Party leaders against the RJD government.

Should there be an election now to the Bihar assembly, little over 20 per cent of the voters would prefer Laloo Yadav as chief minister. Only five per cent prefer Rabri Devi. Nearly 15 per cent feel the BJP's Sushil Modi is the right person for the job. Only 10 per cent favour Union Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha while 12 per cent would like former Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan to be elevated to the top state job. Seven per cent favour Union Railway Minister Nitish Kumar.

Among Muslim and schedule caste voters, Paswan has marginally higher support.

Over 50 per cent of the Kurmi voters feel Nitish Kumar will be the best chief minister. Nearly 40 per cent of the Kayasth voters think of Yashwant Sinha similarly and 40 per cent of Rajputs and Vaishyas of Sushil Modi. Over 85 per cent of the Yadav voters think so of Laloo Yadav.

A majority of the voters feel that Yadavs, who constitute about 11 per cent of Bihar's population, are beneficiaries of the Rabri Devi government in Bihar. Only 12 per cent think that SCs, who constitute 16 per cent of the Bihar population, are also beneficiaries.

As for the impact of the recent developments on Laloo Yadav's standing, the voters are divided. One-third of the voters think that they have improved his popularity in Bihar against as many who think otherwise. And, one-third of the voters are not sure.

Should the Vajpayee government lose its majority, 30 per cent of the Bihar voters expect Congress president Sonia Gandhi to take over. Nearly 15 per cent think so of Laloo Yadav against 5 per cent who prefer West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. One-third of the voters are not sure. Interestingly, no other leader was mentioned in this regard by more than one per cent.

Nearly 60 per cent of the Bihar voters are unhappy with the performance of the Vajpayee government at the Centre. Thirty per cent, however, think otherwise. Price rise and law and order are viewed as the government's major failures.

Nearly 40 per cent of the voters think Sonia would give a boost to the Congress in Bihar if there be an assembly election now. Nearly 30 per cent, constituting mostly Kurmis, Kshatriyas and Rajputs, think otherwise.

Overall, the CMS survey shows the Congress has improved its standing in Bihar although the party is nowhere near being viewed as a serious contender for power in the state.

The Bihar situation is so diffused and so polarised on caste lines that no one party can think of coming to power on its own.

Strategic alliances will decide the electoral outcome, says the CMS' Dharmendra Kumar Singh.

Laloo Yadav seems to have won the first round in this regard due to his controversial stand on Vananchal.

The BJP-Samata Party alliance is improving its support although only marginally since the February general election. Neither party gained significantly, including in Vananchal in the wake of the current crisis. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, however, has improved its fortunes more markedly after the Centre announced its decision on smaller states.

One-third of Muslim voters in Bihar think the Congress is the only party that safeguards their interests. The RJD is thought of similarly by a quarter of Muslim voters. Only seven per cent of the Muslims think so of the BJP and the Samata Party.

About 50 per cent of SC voters think the Congress and the RJD support their interests. A little over half of ST voters think the JMM safeguards their interests against 10 per cent who think so of the BJP-Samata. Neither the Congress nor the RJD has more than five per cent support among ST voters.

Five different regions including Vananchal districts were covered by the CMS survey. Voters in five towns and 20 carefully selected villages were sampled and interviewed systematically for their assessment of the political situation. About 300 voters from each region were covered in this survey.

No other state, except perhaps UP, presents such 'turmoil' as in Bihar today. The fragmentation of voters on caste, class, community and regional lines is unprecedented in recent years, says Singh.

Dr Rao, the well-known psephologist, heads the Centre for Media Studies.

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