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BJP, Congress gird up their loins for November encounter

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

The forthcoming assembly election in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan, scheduled for November 25, will be a test for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress.

For the BJP, it is the first trial of its strength after taking over the reins at the Centre, and the results will be an indicator of the people's mood towards them. And for the Congress, it will be the first electoral contest for Sonia Gandhi after taking over as party president.

"The election is crucial for us," admitted BJP general secretary Venkaiah Naidu, "coming within six months of the BJP taking over at the Centre."

But he refused to term the election as a referendum on the central government's performance. "While some central issues will certainly figure during the campaign, the crux of the poll will be based on local and state issues," he said.

His counterpart in the Congress, Oscar Fernandes, does not completely agree. "The Centre's performance will matter. The election will be fought on the basis of the BJP's performance at the Centre. After all, every ballot is a referendum," he said.

And he was confident that with Sonia at the helm, the result would be in the Congress's favour. "When Sonia took over, we were not comfortable, but now the picture is different," he declared.

The Congress plans to highlight the difference between the BJP's promises and performance. "The BJP always said 'give us a chance', and now that we have done that, we have seen their non-performance at the Centre," said Fernandes.

Naidu said the BJP is setting in motion the task of highlighting the performance of the central government, and also comparing it with the poor performance of the earlier United Front and the Congress regimes. "We have kept our promises on most counts, as listed in our election manifesto. We introduced the women's reservation bill, we carried out the nuclear tests to safeguard India's interest," he claimed.

Certain factors that will figure are the steep increases in the prices of food items, especially onions, which is a staple diet for most Indians, and the deportation of Bangladeshis in Maharashtra which has a communal angle to it.

"Onions have become so expensive (from Rs 5 per kilo to Rs 40 per kilo) that they will soon disappear from the common man's diet," said Fernandes sardonically. He said with the people now having experienced the reality of BJP rule, they would seek the stability of the Congress once again.

Naidu defended his government on the charges. "Prices is the responsibility of both the state and the central governments, but you must remember that the Essential Commodities Act comes under the states' purview. Second, we have only deported 96 Bangladeshis, the Congress deported 4,000 between 1991 and 1995. And can we help it if the Bangladeshis are Muslims," he asks.

The anti-incumbency factor too, could matter. While the BJP is in power in Rajasthan and Delhi, it is the main opposition in Madhya Pradesh. In Mizoram, the BJP has no presence, but hopes to break that jinx this time.

"In Mizoram, we expect to win a few seats and thereby establish our presence. And we also want to make it difficult for the Congress to win," added Naidu. The Congress appears confident of retaining Mizoram. "We have been winning there and will do so," claimed Fernandes.

In Madhya Pradesh, which had a BJP government before the present Congress government, the BJP has its hopes high. Sending 40 members to the Lok Sabha, this massive state is important in the BJP's scheme of things if it were to gain power at the Centre without bothersome allies. And infighting within the Congress is keeping its hopes alive.

On the other hand, in Rajasthan and Delhi, it is the BJP that is in power, and here the Congress remains hopeful of making it by highlighting what it perceives are the government's failures. In Delhi, for instance, the Sahib Singh Verma government is being seen as having foundered on most counts. Prices have skyrocketed, power failures are endemic, mustard oil adulteration killed dozens, and the crime graph has shot up.

Whether this will affect the BJP's chances remains to be seen, but in the recent Delhi University Students Union elections, the Congress students wing managed to wrest two seats from the BJP's student's wing.

"This only indicates our growing popularity," said Fernandes, "and we are sure to sweep Delhi." Incidentally, Fernandes is in charge of Delhi and Mizoram.

But Naidu, who is in charge of Delhi, remains hopeful. "I doubt if the people of Delhi will want a local government different from that of the Centre, and for this reason it will vote for the BJP," he said. Yet, he admitted that things weren't exactly hunky-dory in the capital city. "I think we have not been able to highlight our many successes, hence the negative image. But all this will change once we start campaigning," insisted Naidu.

Right now, both parties are finalising the list of candidates for the respective states. And while both Fernandes and Naidu insist that their side will win, both say it is too early to predict the margin of victory. "By November, we will have a much better picture," said Naidu.

Fernandes hinted that much might happen even before the election. "Congress leader (Purno A) Sangma had said to wait till November, and I can only reiterate that," he said.

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