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US not 'overly optimistic' on India, Pak signing on the dotted line

The United States is not ''overly optimistic'' about the progress of its ongoing dialogue with India and Pakistan on signing of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by these two countries, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott has said.

Referring to Washington's talks with New Delhi and Islamabad on nuclear issues, especially signing of the CTBT, during a live Worldnet Interactive with Indian and Pakistani panelists on 'Peace, security and stability in south Asia', Talbott said, ''I am not very sanguine or overly optimistic ... It requires a good deal of political effort from all the sides to achieve any breakthrough.''

He said though some progress had been made on export controls regarding nuclear-related technologies, the key interlocutors were still away from breaking sufficient ground on strategic restraint and production of fissile material.

Former Indian ambassador to the US, China and Pakistan, K S Bajpai, noted security expert K Subrahmanyam and senior journalist Saeed Naqvi were the panelists from India. Former Pakistani foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmad Khan, columnist Lt Gen (retd) Kamal Matinuddin and senator M Akram Zaki, chairman, standing committee on foreign affairs, Kashmir affairs and northern affairs, posed questions from Islamabad.

Talbott dismissed a question from Tanvir Ahmad Khan whether Washington had a ''secret deal'' with India for granting a permanent seat in the UN Security Council and supplying sensitive technology to it in exchange for New Delhi signing the CTBT. ''We do not believe in secret governance. Secret diplomacy does not hold good in talks between two democracies,'' he said.

Khan said though a consensus was emerging in Pakistan on signing the CTBT, there were also apprehensions that it would be followed by subsequent demands on NPT and other issues. Asked about the ''ultimate parameters'' of the dialogue, Talbott said, ''The US is not in a position to make demands. The focus of the dialogue is on synergical interests of all ... It is not a zero-sum game.''

The deputy secretary of state spelt out the five focal issues as strengthening of the global non-proliferation regime by signing of the CTBT, checks on the production of fissile material, strategic restraint by both New Delhi and Islamabad in terms of development and deployment of ballistic missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft, export controls and Washington's ''keenness'' to use its good offices to promote dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad.

He ruled out any amendment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty to accommodate India and Pakistan as nuclear-weapon states. ''There are too many countries which have shown full faith in NPT,'' he said and added that the dialogue did not include the changing position of the two countries on NPT.

Talbott said while the long-term US objective was to make substantial progress on non-proliferation, its interim steps were aimed at assisting the two countries evolve their security doctrines.

He disagreed that the May nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan had enhanced their security. ''Our response is neither dogmatic nor rigid. Neither country is safe today because of the destabilising nature of these weapons,'' he said adding, ''Also it entails huge economic costs which neither country can afford.''

Subrahmanyam asked why despite a ''self-admission that a nuclear war cannot be fought and won'', the United States has not been committing itself to total nuclear disarmament.

Talbott assured that Washington would move along with other states for nuclear disarmament and said President Bill Clinton and his Russian counterpart Boris Yeltsin were in touch to move forward from START-II to START-III to reduce their nuclear arsenals to 80 per cent below the Cold War levels, and that of the short-range nuclear weapons to 90 per cent of that level.

To a question on the need to dissociate south Asian security from the general issue of non-proliferation, he said, ''It is a dubious proposition ... The United States does not believe that non-proliferation is anything but a global issue.''

Talbott also refuted that Washington was being in any way discriminatory against either New Delhi or Islamabad. ''We have an even-handed approach.''

Referring to India-Pakistan relations, he said, ''Each side is involved in a zero-sum game'' and dismissed that the US was yolking together both these countries in its south Asia policy. ''If there is any yolking, it is between you folks,'' he added.

On the recent talks between New Delhi and Islamabad, he expressed optimism with the two sides ''moving from procedural questions to practical steps'' as evident from certain confidence- building measures.

UNI

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