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US brushes aside no-first-use offer, sets three conditions for India

The United States on Thursday set three definite conditions for India, including the signing of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without condition and avoiding weaponisation and deployment of ballistic missiles, to '' put itself back on the road of good international standing '' in the field of weapons proliferation procedure.

State Department spokesman James Rubin, who spelt out these conditions at his daily press briefing, said these steps were necessary for India '' to get out of the hole they have dug themselves in.'' It could start by signing the CTBT ''without condition,'' he added.

The third condition, he listed, called upon New Delhi to join the negotiations on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. The treaty is related to the material used in manufacture of nuclear devices.

Asked whether these would lead to the lifting of the economic sanctions that the US had slapped on the country after its nuclear tests on May 11 and 13, Rubin said there was no provision for lifting the sanctions. That would require a separate legislation to be passed by Congress, he added.

The Clinton administration also made light of Prime Minister A B Vajpayee's offer of an accord on ''no-first-use of nuclear weapons'' to Pakistan.

Commenting on Vajpayee's statement to this effect in Parliament on Wednesday, Rubin said, ''We do believe that the prime minister's proposal indicates a sensitivity to the issue of reducing tensions between India and its neighbours and we favour steps that will accomplish that important objective.''

''However, we should bear in mind that India's testing of nuclear weapons has itself made a major contribution to raising tensions in the region,'' he added.

Rubin said it would be best for India to focus less on this no-first-use issue and more on the signing of the CTBT without conditions, joining serious negotiations on the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty and undertake not to weaponise or deploy ballistic missiles.''Those would be the kind of steps that would genuinely reduce tensions,'' he added.

''Well, clearly the ball is in India's court, and if they want to get themselves out of the hole they've dug for themselves, they could start by signing the CTBT. Those certainly would be steps that would begin to put India back on the road to good standing in the international community when it comes to weapons proliferation practices," he added.

Asked whether these steps would be first steps, but not sufficient to have all the post-nuclear test sanctions removed, he said there was no provision for removal of sanctions in the legislation under which these curbs had been slapped on India. ''If one wanted to do that, one would have to pass another law,'' he added.

When asked whether it would be sufficient for the US to lift sanctions if New Delhi agreed not to weaponise and sign the CTBT or it would have to do something more affirmatively, Rubin said, ''Weaponised ballistic missiles could be many types of weaponry -- it's not necessarily just nuclear weapons - and the CTBT refers only to nuclear weapons. So these are three separate undertakings we are looking for. One, sign the comprehensive test ban, join the rest of the world -- over 100 countries that have signed it. Number two, agree and pursue seriously negotiations to cut off all the fissile material in the world that could be used to make nuclear weapons and number three, not to deploy ballistic missiles and weaponise them.''

But presumably, a statement by the Government of India would not be sufficient, they would have to sign some kind of an agreement.

Rubin: Well, there is no such agreement currently in place -- a non-weaponisation of ballistic missiles agreement. However, there are agreements, like the Missile Technology Control Regime that govern missiles. We would certainly not have any trouble constructing a way to give effect to a commitment not to weaponise or deploy ballistic missiles. The problem is the commitment, not the structure.

And if India did all three of these things, it wouldn't necessarily mean that the Congress could be persuaded to lift the sanctions?

Rubin: Well, I'm not saying what the result of those things would be, except to say that they would return them from the direction that they're now in, which is outside the mainstream, outside the norm of the international community against proliferation. Those are three steps that could begin to reverse the process. How far it would reverse their status, I would not even hesitate to say because we have had no indications that they are now prepared to take those steps.

Asked about the incentives that the US intended to offer to Pakistan for abandoning the idea of a nuclear test, Rubin said, ''We are in intensive discussions with the Pakistani government in trying to explain to them the serious negative consequences of testing. I think for those who have followed what happened to India as a result of their test, it's very clear that the international community's condemnation of India's defiance on this subject has cost India dearly''.

He said the World Bank loans, including $ 450 million for electrical power distribution, $ 130 million for hydro- electric generators, $ 275 million for road construction and ten million dollars for promotion of private sector development had all been postponed -- a total of $ 865 million. ''This is going to sting,'' he added.

He said, ''Indian electric power sector needs to expand very rapidly if the country's economy is to grow. Without direct support from the World Bank and with the financial uncertainly created by the postponement of these loans, expansion will be slowed significantly''.

''Sanctions are being imposed as we speak -- $ 41 million of munitions licences were stopped, the OPIC, there is the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the Ex-Im, the Export-Import Bank have suspended new commitments,'' he added.

The State Department spokesman said the potential coverage for the OPIC was over ten million dollars, and Ex-Im guarantees were about a half a billion dollars, with another possibility of over $ 3.5 billion of loans. ''In other words, the sanctions that are being imposed on India are stinging to the extent of billions and billions and billions of dollars of lost opportunity for the Indian people,'' he added.

Rubin said, ''I think part of our discussion with the Pakistani government is based on that, which is informing them of what is happening to India so they understand what the automatic sanctions that are in American law could do to them.''

''On the positive side, we are obviously engaged in a serious discussion with them (Pakistanis) about their security in the aftermath of this decision by India to test, and how our relationship could be enhanced, on how existing difficulties could perhaps be overcome, and what a future might look like in the absence of a test by Pakistan, but the specifics of those general categories are something we think is best left for our discussions with the Pakistanis directly, prior to discussing them publicly.''

When a correspondent drew his attention to a World Bank official observation that the denial of World Bank loans would only be an inconvenience but would not be crippling, Rubin, however, insisted, ''I do not believe the fact that the international community has condemned India, the fact that the World Bank and the IMF are now in the position that they're in, the fact that all the activities that I described -- billions of dollars worth of lost opportunity for India from American sanctions -- is an inconvenience.''

''I think it will sting: It will sting for a long time to come. India made a profound miscalculation about the effect of sanctions, and with each day, they are going to be realising what the effects are. So I do not think it's an inconvenience I think it's a long-term, profound lost opportunity for India to join the international community as a member in good standing to have an economic integration with the rest of the world through overseas private investment council guarantees, through insurance, through billions of dollars of projects that they very much wanted to pursue,'' he added.

''So with that preamble, let me say that I suspect that the effect on Pakistan would be even greater, given the state of its economy,'' he made this observation about the impact of possible US sanctions on Islamabad in case it decided to go ahead with its nuclear tests.

When his attention was drawn to reports that the Clinton administration failed to convince the World Bank to dismiss the loans proposed for India completely, Rubin said the US had achieved its objective at the World Bank which was to delay indefinitely, consideration of the loans. The US objective was indefinite postponement, and that was what had happened, he added.

UNI

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