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Heatwave will make way for normal monsoon

Rajesh Ramachandran in New Delhi

Even as the heatwave continues to make life miserable across the country, the meteorological department has predicted a normal monsoon this year.

If the prediction is correct, this will be India's eleventh successive normal monsoon.

The rains, according to the met department, will hit the Kerala coast on the appointed day, June 1, when the south-west monsoon traditionally sets in.

The south-west monsoon has so far been on schedule, reaching the Andaman seas on May 15.

But, as of now, there is no respite from the sweltering heat that has already taken a toll of 111 people all over the country.

S R Kalsi, deputy director general of the Indian Meteorological Department, told Rediff On The NeT that no atmospheric disturbances have been noticed so far, and hence the current spate of very hot days and warm nights will continue for at least another 72 hours.

"No weather disturbance has been recorded since May 13, so we need not expect rains for the next two or three days. But this clear sunshine and day temperature are favourable for a normal monsoon. In 1995 also we observed a similar temperature rise," says Kalsi.

IMD director S C Goel told Rediff On The NeT that the mercury is bound to soar every alternate year. Whenever there is a prolonged spell it becomes unbearable and people notice it, otherwise the heat is not unprecedented,"

Even the deaths don't surprise the scientists. They point out that it is those who are most exposed to the heat who perish in the punishing summer.

"This year is not the most pronounced or the most prolonged spell of summer. It is more than last year's, that is all. Public memory is very short, we had a severe summer in 1994-95 too. The mercury had touched 49.9 on May 9, 1995 in Barmer and 49.4 on the May 4 that very year in Bikaner, so the heat this year is nothing new," asserts Kalsi.

Despite the met department's assurance, the country is reeling under the blazing sun, making the people wonder if this year's warmth is due to the El Nino factor. El Nino, a term used to explain the unusual warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurs without a pattern and affects weather conditions. Even the Indian monsoon has been affected by El Nino.

IMD officials said although since December, the warming over the Pacific Ocean has been decreasing gradually, the El Nino episode is likely to persist during the first half of the 1998 monsoon season.

The 16-parameter model of IMD takes into account the effects of El Nino, both qualitatively and quantitatively

''After its last occurrence in 1991-92 El Nino reappeared in March 1997. It developed into one of the strongest El Nino episodes of the century, and reached its peak value in December 1997."

However, the rainfall for 1997 turned out to be normal as per IMD's long-range forecast, in spite of the El Nino event showing its limited influence on the monsoon.

This year, nine out of the 16 model parameters are favourable and indications from the parametric model also indicate a normal monsoon.

Additional reportage: UNI

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