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2051: A demographic odyssey

D Jose in Thiruvananthapuram

The best possible education. Jobs of your choice. Better economic facilities. Wider choice of, well, everything. All within the south Indian state of Kerala.

By the first half of century 21.

These remarkable turnarounds are possible as a result of the zero population growth that Kerala is slated to achieve by the middle of the next century. A recent study conducted by K C Zachariah and S Irudayarajan of the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, shows that the total fertility rate of Kerala would witness a steady decline in the next 25 to 30 years.

The study entitled Long term implications of low fertility rate in Kerala says the TFR, which declined from 4.1 children per women to 1.7 by the early 90s, would come down further, leading to negative population growth within the next three decades. Nine of the 14 districts in the state have already achieved below replacement level of fertility.

The projections by the two demographers show that the population of Kerala would never cross 37 million, which means an addition of just seven million people to the existing population. The population growth during 1991 to 2000 would be restricted to 2.5 million as against the 3.5 million growth in 1981 to 1991.

The socio-economic implications of the demographic trend reversal will be far reaching. It will open vistas of opportunities, as well as problems, for the planners and administrators. The pressure on schools and colleges is expected to ease considerably, opening up ample opportunities to concentrate on quality education. At the same time, this would render thousands of teachers jobless due to reduction of students. The trend would also affect hospital and health personnel catering to the needs of children.

This, however, would bring about the needed improvement in the quality of service, the study points out.

Another good thing about the fall in population growth is that the Kerala girls would have a wider choice of grooms -- as of now, boys outnumber girls.

The pinch of the expected decline in child population would be felt by the booming toy manufacturing and children's clothing industries. The projections indicate that the number of persons in the working age group would come down to 17 million by 2051. This would enable the educated youth to select jobs they want.

However, old workers would find the going tough. Their number would almost double in a short period of 20 years as a direct result of the improvement in life expectancy. For men, the average life span would go up from the present 70 to 78.85; and for women, from 76 to 84.85. Thus, the study holds, the major socio-economic problem the state would face in the next half a century would be to find gainful employment for the older working population, maintenance of their health and nutrition, and providing them with means of subsistence through social security, pension etc.

A gratifying feature for the older population is that their proportion among the voters would increase from the present 1 in 7 to 1 in 5 by 2021, making them a formidable vote bank. The study suggests that the need for social support to the elderly would lead to changes in political economy and may result in the emergency of efficient systems of support.

Thus, it appears that Kerala would continue to maintain its lead role in health and educational standards in the country -- a view which is backed by other projects on demographic trends in the next 60 years.

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