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ELECTIONS '96

Coimbatore blasts sealed DMK-TMC fate

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham-Bharatiya Janata Party's near-clean sweep in Tamil Nadu was as much a mandate in favour of saffron prime ministerial nominee Atal Bihari Vajpayee's leadership as against the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its Tamil Maanila Congress ally at the state-level.

And it is as much a victory for the 'strategic alliance' that the AIADMK and the BJP have forged along with the Marumalarchi DMK and Pattali Makkal Katchi, as much for the former party's supremo J Jayalalitha.

The alliance has won 23 out of 37 seats where results were available. The DMK-Tamil Maanila Congress has won nine seats, shocking the victors as much as the vanquished.

What has come as a surprise is the AIADMK doing well in its pocket-boroughs of the past, which had deserted the party in 1996. Here, the party could not expect much of an electoral contribution from its allies. Only in select constituencies did the MDMK and the PMK have some influence.

Though Jayalalitha was enthusiastically cheered in these areas during her campaign tour, there was nothing in the air that gave her own camp any great confidence, if not comfort.

The 'silent majority' has won one more round of elections in Tamil Nadu. The voter, who is supposed to be the master but who has always been taken for granted by politicians and pollsters alike, has struck one more deadly blow. If Jayalalitha was the issue in 1996, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in 1991, and non-governance of the MGR variety in 1989, it obviously is law and order again this time.

The 'Coimbatore blasts' on the eve of the first round of polling on February 14 convinced the voters that something was rotten in the state of Chief Minister M Karunanidhi. If the serial blasts accompanying L K Advani's visit to Coimbatore on February 14 claimed over 50 lives and shocked the state into near-numbness, the voter alone seemed to have recovered quick and fast.

Apart from the failure of the law and order, and intelligence machinery, for which the voter obviously held the state government responsible, there was also the question of the ruling party's 'indulgence towards Islamic fundamentalists'. It has been revealed by the killing of a traffic constable, and the consequent riots in the textile town in November.

The seizure of arms cache from various hideouts in and around Coimbatore in one long row, convinced the voter that the state government had miserably failed in its duty. It also convinced him that the police all along had the information, but were possibly stopped in their tracks by their political masters.

The low victory margins in most cases against a low turnout, shows the trend.

For the DMK-TMC combine, it means a fall in esteem. Success has many parents, but failures are orphans. If the TMC and DMK camp would start finding excuses, and blame each other for their historic defeat, which may possibly lead to a drift, the BJP-AIADMK alliance may start interpreting the victory differentially.

Though she has always had an eye on Delhi politics, Jayalalitha's immediate concern seems to be the state, where she is not only fighting political opponents, but also court cases. Her victorious moment has been marred by a Supreme Court verdict, vacating the stay on some of the court proceedings against her. In a way, it compares unfavourably against Advani's situation, where the apex court, on the very same day, has cleared him of all charges in the hawala case.

For the BJP, the success may bring with it its own share of political and organisational problems. Though its leaders have so far held the DMK state government responsible for the 'Coimbatore blasts', every one of them carefully avoided demanding the resignation of the Karunanidhi regime.

Now, the party may be flooded with demands for the dismissal of the DMK government from its AIADMK-led allies, when the BJP has sworn against the 'misuse of Article 356'. How far can the BJP yield ground on this count, particularly when its leaders have taken a public stand against the DMK?

A decision, however, will also have to depend on the BJP's organisational future course in a state like Tamil Nadu. True, the 'Dravidian voter' has overwhelmingly voted on national issues -- as he has always been doing since 1971. And has preferred the 'stable Centre' call of the party and its allies, to the 'secularism' stance of the DMK-TMC combine.

There is no denying that the BJP has cut into the traditional 'nationalist' vote banks of the Congress, which went the TMC way in 1996. But whether they will stay with the BJP on other issues remains to be seen. Maybe, they will still vote against the AIADMK in assembly elections.

On that will depend the BJP's future decision, either to continue the alliance with the AIADMK and company, or strike its own course in the state, and create a new vote bank, before the 'committed' votes of today drift away.

Elections '98

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