AIADMK smashes its way back into the reckoning
N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras
Tamil Nadu seems to be the dark horse in these elections, with the All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam winning 10 of the 39 seats, none of which it had won in the last election.
The AIADMK recorded some unexpected early 'upsets' in its traditional strongholds, which it lost in the last election, with some help from the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Pattali Makkal Katchi and, in particular, its national ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Prominent winners for the group include MDMK general secretary Vai Ko from Sivakasi, Janata Party president Subramaniam Swamy from Madurai and former Union minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam from Tiruchirapally.
The ruling DMK-led combine has had to satisfy itself with five seats and is leading in just three constituencies. Its ministers P Arunachalam and Dhanushkody Adithyan were trailing in Tenkasi and Tiuchandur, and G R Balasubramaniam losing the Niligiris seat.
This could rejuvenate the BJP which has had setbacks elsewhere and also mark the re-emergence of J Jayalalitha.
Against this, the DMK has retained its hold over the three Madras city constituencies and six other seats. The TMC has established early leads in three constituencies with the Communist Party of India support.
If the AIADMK alliance ends up with around 15 seats, it would help the BJP come much closer to the 'magic figure' of 272 seats it needs to form a government at the Centre.
In that eventuality, Jayalalitha will have a friendly -- and dependent -- government at the Centre. She would also crow that the alliance victory was vindication of her charge that the DMK state government was falsely charging her with corruption. She can also be expected to press the BJP to dismiss the DMK government at an early date and order fresh elections.
A victory would help Jayalalitha achieve her two major goals -- depriving the DMK of a national ally in the BJP and a future regional partner in the PMK and, two, using the BJP to lever itself to the No 2. position in the state thereby putting paid to G K Moopanar's hopes of becoming prime minister.
If the DMK and the TMC lose, they have themselves to blame. The DMK, for one, was indifferent to administration, blaming the earlier Jayalalitha government for all the ills of the state, be it the steep hike in bus fares or the irregular distribution of nation rice.
For its part, the TMC sat in an ivory tower, slighting the DMK and the CPI-M with impunity. This has contributed to the poor show in Madurai, Nagercoil and a few other places, where it might even end up losing.
The Communist Party of India-Marxist has its own candidates in Madras north and Madurai constituencies against the DMK and the TMC respectively, though it backs both ruling parties elsewhere.
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