Congress starts to count the numbers
George Iype in New Delhi
The Congress is revving up plans to topple the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government as
the anti-Bharatiya Janata Party campaign among the Opposition parties could make the parliamentary arithmetic favourable towards a Congress-led coalition.
The oust-BJP plank among the secular parties has gathered considerable momentum after the formation of the National Democratic Front by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav on Wednesday.
While hardliners in the Congress Working Committee have already suggested to
the leadership that the party could now dislodge the Vajpayee government, the stumbling block to this move is Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
Party sources said Sonia is reluctant to make any move to oust the BJP government, as she is still unconvinced that the Congress can form a stable coalition with the support of Mulayam's Samajwadi Party and Laloo's Rashtriya Janata Dal.
"But it does not mean Sonia is not in favour of unseating the BJP government. All of us in the Congress know that time is running out for Prime Minister Vajpayee and we have to be prepared to form the next government," a Congress leader close to Sonia told Rediff On The NeT.
He said Sonia's strategy is to play the political game a little longer so that it would
allow the smaller Opposition parties and disgruntled BJP allies to take the plunge to
dislodge the Vajpayee regime.
"We have begun counting the numbers. Now what concerns us is the parliamentary
arithmetic," the Congress leader added.
The ruling BJP and its allies have a strength of 277 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. But its partners like J Jayalalitha's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
and Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamul Congress have developed serious differences
with the government. Jayalalitha and Mamata together command the allegiance of 34 MPs in the Lok Sabha.
Congress strategists believe Sonia could easily persuade both Jayalalitha and Bannerjee to switch sides to a join a Congress-led government.
While the Congress has 142 MPs in the Lok Sabha, Mulayam and Laloo's new Front have 37 MPs.
But party insiders concede the coming together of the like-minded secular parties to
support a Congress-led government will not succeed till the Left parties pledges outside
support. The four Left parties -- the Communist Party of India-Marxist, the Communist Party
of India, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the All India Forward Bloc -- have 48 MPs.
According to CWC member Madhavrao Scindia, the heartening point for the Congress in the oust-BJP
government campaign among the Opposition parties is that "the real enthusiasm has come
from some of the BJP's crucial allies."
"I would say this government will not last long. But the likely formation of a new
government -- whether it is led by the Congress or not -- is in the initial stages,
especially after the two Yadavs have come together," he told Rediff On The NeT.
"Ultimately, every political party now wants an end to saffron rule in the country,"
Scindia added.
Sources said the unity between two Yadavs has been brokered by a number of Congress
leaders like Scindia, Jitendra Prasada and Ghulam Nabi Azad, by assuring them that Sonia will take the plunge soon.
Congress managers argue that the party can muster more than 260 seats in the Lok Sabha only if the Left parties decide to support a new government unconditionally.
The Left parties have unofficially announced that they are ready to support a Congress
government. While a number of Congress leaders, including former finance minister Dr Manmohan Singh, are liasing with the Left Front, many fear hurdles could crop up between the Left and the Congress's likely partners like the AIADMK.
The Congress realises it cannot get AIADMK support without accepting
Jayalalitha's demand to dismiss the Karunanidhi government in Tamil Nadu. But the
Left parties have supported the DMK government to the hilt and will not agree to the
AIADMK demand.
Tell us what you think of this report
|