BJP looks for Trojan horse in Jaya, Sonia camps
Rajesh Ramachandran in New Delhi
The Bharatiya Janata Party is in a tight spot. On one hand, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has virtually delivered an ultimatum with Jayalalitha's outburst against Home Minister L K Advani on Tuesday, while, on the other, the Opposition parties have been rallying together like never before.
Nevertheless, the ruling party is still confident that it would pull through and asserts that there is no immediate threat to the government.
The BJP has opened direct channels of communication with its Tamil Nadu
allies, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Pattali Makkal Katchi,
and even with individual AIADMK members of Parliament.
BJP leaders point out that many AIADMK MPs are not entirely happy with their general secretary's and Janata Party president
Subramanian Swamy's overtures to the Congress. And they insist that the
chances of a split in AIADMK are high if Jayalalitha decides to switch
allegiance to the Congress.
Another option which the party is keeping open is the Sharad Pawar factor.
Now that the schism between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the
former Maharashtra chief minister has widened following the defeat of
Sonia's candidate Ram D Pradhan in last week's Rajya Sabha election, top-ranking
BJP leaders indicate that they are in constant touch with Pawar.
More than banking on overt support from the Pawar faction, the BJP
leaders hope that the Congress will hesitate from unleashing an all-out attack against the government while Pawar remains on the sidelines.
Pawar, who is supposed to have the support of 30 Lok Sabha MPs,
left for London even before a three-member inquiry committee looking into Pradhan's defeat arrived in Bombay. He also did not attend the Congress Working Committee
meeting on June 23.
"You cannot rule out a 1991 Narasimha Rao-like floor management, wherein
we muster enough support to complete our five-year term. We are
talking to AIADMK members and are pretty sure that PMK and MDMK will stand by us during a crisis. Pawar's attitude is also ambivalent," a senior BJP leader said.
Ever since former prime minister Chandra Shekhar gave a call to
topple the BJP government and asked the Congress to take a firm stand on
the issue, the capital is rife with speculation on the life of the
Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.
Though the Congress desisted from obliging Shekhar, the BJP admits
there is a political crisis in the wake of Jayalalitha's virulent
personal attack against Advani.
Jayalalitha picked on Advani saying that it is unfortunate that the latter,
who has no concern for the nation's security, is in charge of the home
ministry.
"The BJP," general secretary M Venkaiah Naidu told Rediff On The NeT, "will not be provoked by the statement. I still believe the situation can be saved. We will convince Jayalalitha about our difficulties in using
Article 356 when she comes to New Delhi for the coordination committee meeting. The government cannot act on what has happened in the past. If the
situation worsens in the future and if it warrants the Centre's intervention, we will surely act accordingly."
BJP president Kushabhau Thakre, Vajpayee and Advani, all of whom are away from the capital, returned to New Delhi today. They are scheduled to meet to prepare the ground for the June 27 coordination committee meeting.
The BJP's confidence in weathering the crisis arises from the fact that
the Congress too will not be able to promise Karunanidhi's scalp to
Jayalalitha. This is because the Left, without whose support the Congress cannot form an alternate government, would never support the Tamil Nadu government's dismissal.
Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Bannerjee too will find it
difficult to align with the Congress. She quit the Congress after calling it
the Communist Party of India-Marxist's B-team in West Bengal.
Given these factors, BJP leaders feel confident that even if their government is toppled, they would be the gainers. "We would be the martyrs who were not allowed to rule by these alliances of convenience. The Congress knows very well that an alternate government will not last six months. And the next time it
will not have any excuse to offer to the voter," says a BJP official.
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