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Rising vehicles may make Delhi traffic crawl by 2000

Vehicles on Delhi's roads will crawl at an average speed of 11 km per hour within two years if the increase in their numbers continues unabated, experts warn.

The average speed on the capital's roads in 1988 was 25 kmph. It has been estimated that if the traffic volume rises at the current pace, the average speed of vehicles in Delhi will be reduced to 11 kmph by 2000, says a recent Central Road Research Institute study.

''Delhi has been experiencing an exponential growth in the registration of motorised vehicles since the 1970s.The growth of vehicles in Delhi has been higher than the human population,'' says the study released earlier this month.

The urban population has increased from 3.65 million in 1971 to 8.47 million in 1991 while the vehicle population has gone up more than nine times from 0.20 million in 1971 to 1.8 million two decades later.

If the present trend continues, the capital's vehicular population is tipped to go over four million while the human population will be more than 10 million by 2000.

In addition to the vehicles registered in Delhi, it has been estimated that about 100,000 vehicles from the neighbouring states also ply on Delhi roads, adding to the congestion and pollution problems.

While the vehicle numbers have gone up more than nine times, the road length has increased by 2.6 times only, resulting in high vehicle density.

''Traffic congestion has reduced vehicular speeds and is responsible for longer travel times, more accidents and extra fuel consumption. Higher concentration of air pollutants around busy traffic intersections has become a regular feature in urban areas. The increasing trend of urbanisation coupled with the growth in vehicular and human population is likely to further aggravate the existing grave conditions in the near future,'' cautions another report by the Tata Energy Research Institute quoted by the CRRI study.

According to the CRRI, over 321,000 litres of petrol and 101,000 litres of diesel are burnt daily in the capital due to the idling of vehicles at 466 signalised intersections.

This is equivalent to about 20 per cent petrol loss daily at traffic intersections due to idling.

''In monetary terms this is equivalent to about Rs 8.2 million per day or Rs 2.45 billion per annum at 1996 prices,'' it adds.

While the fast pace of urbanisation has necessitated the need for an efficient transporation system in Delhi, the public transport system has not been up to the mark, forcing commuters to shift to personal vehicles.

Personalised transport meets 99.5 per cent of the total travel demand in Delhi, the CRRI says.

''It is unique to Delhi that despite a population density of around 220 persons/hectares which is in keeping with the trend in other Asian countries, the modal split is heavily biased in favour of personalised mode of transport, putting Delhi in the bracket of European cities like Paris and Berlin,'' it adds.

The haphazard and unplanned growth of Delhi has aggravated the problem, making it one of the most polluted cities in the world, the study says.

The phenomenal growth registered by motor vehicles in Delhi can be gauged from the fact that while the combined human population of Bombay, Calcutta and Madras is about 3.5 times that of Delhi, the vehicular population of Delhi is more than that of the three other cities combined.

Noting that the vehicular composition has not changed much during the years, the CRRI says that two-wheelers are still the most preferred mode of transport for Delhiites.

While two-wheelers comprise 67 per cent of the total vehicles in Delhi, auto-rickshaws account for three per cent, goods vehicles five per cent, buses one per cent and other four wheelers like cars and jeeps 24 per cent.

Of the total registered vehicles in Delhi, petrol driven vehicles number nearly 93 per cent, four times more than vehicles using diesel as fuel.

Among five metropolitan cities, vehicular emissions were found to be maximum in Delhi at 1,427 tonnes per day followed by Bombay (821 tpd) during 1993.

Stating that Delhi and other Indian metropolises are crying out for a breath of fresh air, the CRRI says the solution lies in improving public transport, regulating urban expansion, increasing the freight movement by rail and putting in place efficient pollution control measures.

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